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<\/a>Sun setting on an oil field (gettyimages.ca)\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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If you\u2019re new to my writing, check out <\/b>this overview<\/b><\/a>.<\/b><\/p>\n I\u2019m finding that <\/span>Large Language Models<\/span><\/a> (LLMs) are a fantastic tool for skimming large amounts of information and summarising what it has scanned\u2013it might take me hours\/days\/weeks to locate, access, read, interpret, summarise in my own words, and then review multiple times for grammar\/spelling\/flow of thought\/etc. a fraction of the data that these computer programmes can take seconds to do. As such, I\u2019ve spent some time using one for the purpose of following some thoughts on <\/span>Peak Oil<\/span><\/a>, a topic that I have been interested in for 15+ years and continue to keep at the forefront of my thinking when interpreting world events and attempting to better understand our modern, complex societies.<\/span><\/p>\n As I\u2019ve asserted repeatedly, energy is everything. Nothing exists without it and it is most certainly fundamental to human complex societies\u2013the more energy we have available and use, the larger and more complex our societies and their various systems become. Yes, our ingenuity and technological prowess have helped us create and build these complexities, but it is all underpinned by energy of one form or another and we have repeatedly leveraged energy to support our various adaptations, technologies, and massive expansion to most corners of our planet.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Our modern world is dependent upon huge amounts of energy and in particular that provided by a finite cache of hydrocarbons. From an energy perspective hydrocarbons\u2013particularly oil\u2013are the commodity resource that should be considered humanity\u2019s \u2018master energy resource\u2019; and it is one that appears irreplaceable given its energy-return-on-investments, density, transportability, and a variety of other characteristics that have led to its primacy in supporting our societal complexities.<\/span><\/p>\n And for better or worse, the waning days of this phenomenal and paramount energy resource are clearly in sight (or at least should be). So what are the implications of this for \u2018Modernity\u2019?<\/span><\/p>\n Let\u2019s explore what the LLM Deepseek (DS) garners from the information it has access to regarding this hugely significant resource.<\/span><\/p>\n I asked the following five preparatory questions:<\/span><\/p>\n My culminating question based upon the responses to the above inquiries:<\/span><\/p>\n The response to this last question begins by stating: \u201cThe implications of these trends for modern, complex societies are profound, touching on energy security, economic stability, geopolitics, and environmental sustainability.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n And DS concludes: \u201cModern societies built on cheap, abundant oil face a decade of reckoning. The choices made now\u2014between clinging to fossil fuels or aggressively transitioning\u2014will determine whether the 21st century sees managed adaptation or chaotic collapse.\u201d (You can find the full responses to my questions directly below my opening comments.)<\/span><\/p>\n First, \u2018profound\u2019 would be one way to describe what Peak Oil portends for our societies. The peaking and subsequent shortfall in hydrocarbon extraction will send (is sending?) our current societal systems spinning in some very \u2018interesting\u2019 ways\u2013including some <\/span>Black Swan events<\/span><\/a> that few, if any, can envision.<\/span><\/p>\n There\u2019s a very good argument that this process began quite a number of years ago and has resulted in such \u2018adaptations\u2019 as significant expansion of manipulation\/machination within impacted societal <\/span>systems, <\/span>especially our economic and geopolitical ones. And this will be\/is particularly true for the current global hegemon (i.e., the US-NATO Empire) whose \u2018power\u2019 is greatly at risk as a result\u2013continued expansion and control is virtually impossible without massive energy resources to support them.<\/span><\/p>\n Second, while I disagree with the \u2018solution\u2019 (pursuit of an aggressive transition to \u2018renewables\u2019) proposed by DS\u2013not that I asked for one\u2013I am not surprised by it.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n LLMs base their \u2018answers\u2019 to questions upon the prompts that are inputted by the person performing the inquiry and the data\/information they have access to. Most individuals and groups (including, but especially profit-driven industries, governments, and academic institutions) are firmly entrenched in the denial and bargaining phases of awareness concerning our energy-resource predicament, and they are the ones that have dominated our research, reporting, and conversations about the issue.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n As such, our media and public spaces are flooded with the narrative (and derivations of it) that human ingenuity and our technological prowess can \u2018solve\u2019 any \u2018problem\u2019 that we encounter\u2013and those that can have leveraged this societal belief to extract \u2018wealth\u2019 and reinforced it at every opportunity. On top of this, most have not only been conditioned to believe this tale but want to believe desperately that it is true. So, it is not the least bit surprising that LLMs would \u2018conclude\u2019 that we can address the predicament of Peak Oil via our technology of \u2018renewables\u2019 and forthcoming \u2018clean\u2019 energy \u2018breakthroughs\u2019. (I can\u2019t help but think of the saying \u201cgarbage in, garbage out\u201d, or in this case: \u201chopium in, hopium out\u201d.)<\/span><\/p>\n Whether you agree with DS\u2019s proposed \u2018solution\u2019 to this predicament depends greatly upon your worldview\/paradigm\/schema\/interpretive lens and the stage of awareness\/grieving you find yourself presently within. If you do hold this story to be \u2018true\u2019, I recommend looking behind the curtain of the \u2018renewables-will-save-us\u2019 storyline and especially into the dark corners where is hidden the disastrous impacts upon our ecosystems of the production of these industrial products and their reliance upon massive hydrocarbon inputs.<\/span><\/p>\n To sum up the \u2018risks\u2019 and \u2018solutions\u2019 the LLM DS suggests regarding a peaking of oil resources [along with what I suspect may accompany each]:<\/span><\/p>\n -Hydrocarbon price volatility due to supply shocks and geopolitical conflict [expect deflection regarding what is causing price volatility and the ramping up of nationalism, warmongering, and othering in light of geopolitical tensions].<\/span><\/p>\n -Risk to economic systems as prices inflate due to higher energy costs [expect dramatic debt-\/credit-based money \u2018creation\u2019 and significant price inflation\u2013blamed on anything but waning hydrocarbon supplies, money \u2018printing\u2019, and wealth extraction by the ruling \u2018elite\u2019 and various snake oil salesmen].<\/span><\/p>\n -Escalating geopolitical tensions due to resource nationalisation and competition [even more nationalism, warmongering, and othering along with reasons for everyone (except the elite) to tighten their belts as we invest ever-greater amounts of resources into domestic resource exploration\/extraction and the military\u2013to help in accessing\/controlling non-domestic resources].<\/span><\/p>\n -Technological adaptation to minimise reliance upon hydrocarbons [expect the narratives surrounding our ability to \u2018solve\u2019 hydrocarbon supply shocks to be ever-present and arguments for gargantuan monetary investments in these technologies and research around them; along with massive wealth gains for those connected to these\u2013completely \u2018justifiable\u2019 because they\u2019re \u2018saving the world\u2019].\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n -Increasing energy poverty, particularly for the already \u2018disadvantaged\/marginalised\u2019 [expect those already suffering from our current socioeconomic and sociopolitical systems to take it on the chin even more while our \u2018leaders\u2019 argue that just the opposite will occur with our energy-security and military \u2018investments\u2019\u2013in other words, even more pronounced socioeconomic inequality and increasing narrative management regarding this].<\/span><\/p>\n It\u2019s certainly a fine mess we find ourselves caught up in. Prepare accordingly\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n A handful of my recent Contemplations that touch on the subjects discussed above:<\/span><\/p>\n -Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation: Envisioning An Alternative Future<\/b>. March 28, 2025. <\/span>Website<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/span>Medium<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/span>Substack<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n -Imperial Longevity, \u2018Collapse\u2019 Causes, and Resource Finiteness<\/b>. March 7, 2025. <\/span>Website<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Medium<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/span>Substack<\/b><\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n -Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse? <\/b>February 20, 2025.<\/span> Website<\/b> <\/a> Medium<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/span>Substack<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n -\u2018Renewable\u2019 Energy: See, Hear, and Speak No Evil, Part 1<\/b>. January 12, 2025.<\/span> Website<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Medium<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Substack<\/b><\/a>; <\/span>Part 2<\/b>.<\/span> January 25.<\/span> Website <\/b><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>Medium<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/span>Substack<\/b><\/a>; <\/span>\u00a0Part 3<\/b>. January 31.<\/span> Website<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Medium<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Substack<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n –<\/span>US Peak Shale Oil & Gas: When the Walls Come Tumblin\u2019 Down<\/b>. December 30, 2024. <\/span>Website<\/b> <\/a> Medium<\/b> <\/a> Substack<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n -Sorry, folks, but \u2018renewables\u2019 are NOT going to save humanity or the planet<\/b>. December 1, 2024. <\/span>Website<\/b><\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Medium<\/b><\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Substack<\/b><\/a>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n –<\/span>Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s), Part 1. <\/b>October 7, 2024.<\/span> Website<\/b><\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Medium<\/b><\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Substack<\/b><\/a>; <\/span>Part 2<\/b>. October 15. <\/span>Website<\/b><\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Medium<\/b><\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Substack<\/b><\/a>;<\/span>Part 3<\/b>. October 23. <\/span>Website<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Medium \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b><\/a>Substack<\/b><\/a>; <\/span>Part 4<\/b>. October 28.<\/span> Website<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Medium<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Substack<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n –<\/span>\u2018Renewables\u2019: The Great \u2018Solution\u2019 (NOT)<\/b>. August 20, 2024. <\/span>Website<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Medium<\/b><\/a> \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/b>Substack<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n The detailed DeepSeek responses follow.<\/span><\/p>\n As of recent data (2023-2024), the world consumes approximately 100 million barrels of oil per day (mb\/d). This figure includes all forms of petroleum liquids, such as crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and refinery processing gains.\u00a0 =<\/span><\/p>\n Key Insights on Global Oil Consumption:<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0– United States (~20 mb\/d)\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0– China (~15\u201316 mb\/d)\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0– India (~5\u20136 mb\/d)\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0– European Union (~13\u201314 mb\/d combined)\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0– Oil demand has been rising gradually, driven by emerging economies (Asia, Africa, Middle East).\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0– Developed nations are seeing slower growth due to energy transitions and efficiency improvements.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0– The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC expect demand to peak between 2030\u20132040 as renewable energy and electric vehicles expand.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0– Short-term demand remains strong due to industrial needs, aviation, and petrochemicals.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The percentage of oil reserves extracted within 5\u201310 years of discovery depends on several factors, including the type of reservoir, technology, economics, and geopolitical conditions. Here\u2019s a general breakdown:<\/span><\/p>\n Typical Recovery Rates in Early Years<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
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