{"id":68650,"date":"2024-06-16T18:57:16","date_gmt":"2024-06-16T23:57:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=68650"},"modified":"2024-06-16T18:57:16","modified_gmt":"2024-06-16T23:57:16","slug":"ieas-staggering-oil-glut-is-staggeringly-unlikely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=68650","title":{"rendered":"IEA\u2019s Staggering Oil Glut is Staggeringly Unlikely"},"content":{"rendered":"
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IEA\u2019s Staggering Oil Glut is Staggeringly Unlikely<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a dishonest broker of information because of its renewable energy bias. This week, it reported that there will be a\u00a0staggering oil glut by the end of the decade<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cTotal supply capacity is forecast to rise to nearly 114 million barrels a day by 2030 \u2013 a\u00a0staggering<\/em><\/strong>\u00a08 million barrels per day above projected global demand\u2026This would result in levels of spare capacity never seen before other than at the height of the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020.\u201d<\/p>\n

IEA Oil 2024<\/a><\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

It\u2019s important to clarify that the surplus in question pertains to\u00a0spare capacity<\/a>, not actual supply. Spare or excess oil capacity arises from production exceeding demand. Understanding the oil supply-demand balances that lead to excess capacity is critical.<\/p>\n

Reproducing the IEA\u2019s projections to 2030 from its\u00a0Oil 2024<\/a><\/em>\u00a0report was challenging because it did not include OPEC oil supply data for the projection period (Figure 1). Omitting a third of the world\u2019s supply is significant and makes IEA\u2019s conclusions difficult to verify. When comparing data from\u00a0OPEC<\/a>, discrepancies were found in the 2022 and 2023 data compared to IEA\u2019s table.<\/p>\n

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\"Figure
Figure 1. IEA Table 1b WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND \u2013 WEO Regions. Source: IEA Oil 2024.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Figure 2 shows that the IEA\u2019s projected oil supply-demand surplus of 6.3 million barrels of oil per day (mmb\/d) by 2030 is nearly\u00a0seventy times greater<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0than the average projections from OPEC and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the same period.<\/p>\n

This significant discrepancy raises a red flag, suggesting potential issues with the IEA\u2019s calculations, assumptions, or both. In two decades of monitoring these three agencies, I\u2019ve never encountered a discrepancy of this magnitude.<\/p>\n

\"Figure
Figure 2. IEA expects world oil supply-demand balance to exceed 6 mmb\/d 2029-2030.
\nOPEC and EIA expect supply and demand to be near balance after 2025.
\nSource: IEA, OPEC, EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

IEA\u2019s Staggering Oil Glut is Staggeringly Unlikely The International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a dishonest broker of information because of its renewable energy bias. This week, it reported that there will be a\u00a0staggering oil glut by the end of the decade. \u201cTotal supply capacity is forecast to rise to nearly 114 million barrels a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[8195,416,433,588,3044],"class_list":["post-68650","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-art-berman","tag-iea","tag-international-energy-agency","tag-oil","tag-oil-glut"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68650","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=68650"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68650\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":68651,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68650\/revisions\/68651"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=68650"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=68650"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=68650"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}