{"id":68642,"date":"2024-06-15T15:34:58","date_gmt":"2024-06-15T20:34:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=68642"},"modified":"2024-06-15T15:34:58","modified_gmt":"2024-06-15T20:34:58","slug":"ieas-2030-outlook-i-dont-even-know-where-to-start","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=68642","title":{"rendered":"IEA&#8217;s 2030 Outlook &#8211; I Don&#8217;t Even Know Where To Start"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"flex flex-col items-start justify-between\">\n<div class=\"flex w-full justify-between\">\n<h3 class=\"mb-18 break-words text-6x-large-b text-share-text md:mb-16 lg:text-7x-large-b\" data-test-id=\"post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4699068-ieas-2030-outlook-i-dont-even-know-where-to-start\">IEA&#8217;s 2030 Outlook &#8211; I Don&#8217;t Even Know Where To Start<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div>\n<p class=\"mb-16 text-4x-large-b\" data-test-id=\"article-summary-title\"><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"mb-24 Dw1An\">\n<li class=\"\" data-test-id=\"article-summary-item\">IEA predicts global oil demand will peak by 2030, leading to an 8 million b\/d surplus due to Electric Vehicle and energy transition movement.<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-test-id=\"article-summary-item\">IEA&#8217;s outlook shows a disconnect between GDP growth and oil demand growth, with unrealistic assumptions about EV penetration and gasoline demand drop.<\/li>\n<li class=\"paywall-full-summary\" data-test-id=\"article-summary-item\">Despite IEA&#8217;s flawed projections, there are insights in the report suggesting peak oil supplies this decade, particularly in US shale production.<\/li>\n<li class=\"paywall-full-summary\" data-test-id=\"article-summary-item\">We see an oil market that&#8217;s going to be in a sustainable deficit by 2030.<\/li>\n<li class=\"paywall-full-summary\" data-test-id=\"article-summary-item\">Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of HFI Research get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_735?source=content_type%3Areact%7Curl_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_bullets%3A5006891%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_bullets%7CHFI%20Research\">Learn More \u00bb<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"paywall-full-content R6FbO flex sa-text-content sa-media-content sa-table-content sa-content-helpers print:block\">\n<div class=\"w-0 grow print:w-auto\">\n<div class=\"T2G6W\" data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1372831999\/image_1372831999.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1372831999\/image_1372831999.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1372831999\/image_1372831999.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1372831999\/image_1372831999.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1372831999\/image_1372831999.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1372831999\/image_1372831999.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1372831999\/image_1372831999.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1372831999\/image_1372831999.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1372831999\/image_1372831999.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" alt=\"Wig Rainbow hair Funny Party concept, clown face formed, Fluffy Synthetic Cosplay Anime Fancy Wigs Festive mood\" width=\"1536px\" height=\"1024px\" data-id=\"1372831999\" data-type=\"getty-image\" \/><\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-credits\">Roman Mykhalchuk<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>IEA published its latest\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/iea.blob.core.windows.net\/assets\/493a4f1b-c0a8-4bfc-be7b-b9c0761a3e5e\/Oil2024.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow\">2030 outlook<\/a>\u00a0yesterday, and I don&#8217;t even know where to start. The big headline from the IEA medium-term outlook is that global oil demand will peak by 2030, and oil producers are going to face a<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">\u00a0surplus as large as ~8 million b\/d thanks to Electric Vehicles (&#8220;EVs&#8221;) and the energy transition movement.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><a href=\"https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2024\/6\/13\/5006891-17182636789930856_origin.png\" rel=\"lightbox\" data-width=\"1194\" data-height=\"670\" data-og-image-twitter_small_card=\"true\" data-og-image-twitter_large_card=\"true\" data-og-image-twitter_image_post=\"true\" data-og-image-msn=\"true\" data-og-image-facebook=\"true\" data-og-image-google_news=\"true\" data-og-image-google_plus=\"true\" data-og-image-linkedin=\"true\"><img decoding=\"async\" contenteditable=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2024\/6\/13\/5006891-17182636789930856.png\" alt=\"balance\" \/><\/a><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">IEA<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">For energy investors, this is the greatest confirmation signal you needed. As a golden rule in energy investing, we&#8217;ve learned that fading the IEA has almost always worked. Who remembers IEA&#8217;s famous call in March 2022 for Russia to lose ~3 million b\/d of oil production following the Ukraine invasion?<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">We remember, and at the time,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4500517-russian-crude-exports-are-not-declining-as-much-as-expected?hasComeFromMpArticle=true&amp;source=content_type%253Areact%257Csection%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link\"><strong>we published a piece cautioning<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0those following IEA&#8217;s prediction. In addition, we also\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/HFI_Research\/status\/1504164471995965447\" rel=\"nofollow\">tweeted<\/a>\u00a0at the time the following:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><a href=\"https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2024\/6\/13\/5006891-17182638953299978_origin.png\" rel=\"lightbox\" data-width=\"1054\" data-height=\"668\" data-og-image-twitter_small_card=\"true\" data-og-image-twitter_large_card=\"true\" data-og-image-twitter_image_post=\"true\" data-og-image-msn=\"true\" data-og-image-facebook=\"true\" data-og-image-google_news=\"true\" data-og-image-google_plus=\"true\" data-og-image-linkedin=\"true\"><img decoding=\"async\" contenteditable=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2024\/6\/13\/5006891-17182638953299978.png\" alt=\"tweet\" \/><\/a><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">HFIR<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">With<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\">\u00a0the benefit of hindsight, Russia lost zero barrels, and we ended up being wrong about the 400k b\/d to 600k b\/d export loss as well.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Nonetheless, the point of this article is to look at the rationale behind IEA&#8217;s massive surplus estimate. There are some notable bullish figures in these charts as well, disguised behind the hideous demand estimates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Let&#8217;s get started.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Delusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><\/picture><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IEA&#8217;s 2030 Outlook &#8211; I Don&#8217;t Even Know Where To Start Summary IEA predicts global oil demand will peak by 2030, leading to an 8 million b\/d surplus due to Electric Vehicle and energy transition movement. IEA&#8217;s outlook shows a disconnect between GDP growth and oil demand growth, with unrealistic assumptions about EV penetration and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[34716,416,433,34715,3948],"class_list":["post-68642","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-hfi-research","tag-iea","tag-international-energy-agency","tag-outlook","tag-seeking-alpha"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68642","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=68642"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68642\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":68643,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68642\/revisions\/68643"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=68642"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=68642"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=68642"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}