{"id":68536,"date":"2024-06-09T17:39:20","date_gmt":"2024-06-09T22:39:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=68536"},"modified":"2024-06-09T17:39:20","modified_gmt":"2024-06-09T22:39:20","slug":"a-second-quarter-recession-this-year-looks-increasingly-likely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=68536","title":{"rendered":"A Second-Quarter Recession This Year Looks Increasingly Likely"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A Second-Quarter Recession This Year Looks Increasingly Likely<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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As I watch the evolution of consumer spending, housing starts, new home sales, and GDPNow trends, it appears the economy has peaked. Warning: I tend to be early.<\/p>\n

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GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed as of 2024-06-03. Chart by Mish<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The GDPNow forecast has been weakening since a peak of 4.2 percent on May 8, 2024.<\/p>\n

The best number to follow is not the overall forecast but rather Real Final Sales (RFS). The rest is inventory adjustment that nets to zero over time.<\/p>\n

A steep plunge occurred in the base forecast from 3.5 to 2.7 then to 1.8 on May 1 and June 3. Importantly, RFS fell from 2.9 to 2.1 to 1.8 on the same dates.<\/p>\n

Balance of Trade<\/strong><\/p>\n

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