{"id":68190,"date":"2024-05-18T10:36:11","date_gmt":"2024-05-18T15:36:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=68190"},"modified":"2024-05-18T10:36:11","modified_gmt":"2024-05-18T15:36:11","slug":"birth-dearth-or-baby-boom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=68190","title":{"rendered":"Birth Dearth or Baby Boom?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"post-header\">\n<h3 class=\"post-title unpublished\"><a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/birth-dearth-or-baby-boom\">Birth Dearth or Baby Boom?<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"subtitle\"><strong>A new debate on where global population may be headed<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"available-content\">\n<div class=\"body markup\" dir=\"auto\">\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdfbc4ecd-6504-47d3-a64a-b577e041d61a_720x720.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdfbc4ecd-6504-47d3-a64a-b577e041d61a_720x720.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdfbc4ecd-6504-47d3-a64a-b577e041d61a_720x720.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdfbc4ecd-6504-47d3-a64a-b577e041d61a_720x720.png 1456w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"100vw\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdfbc4ecd-6504-47d3-a64a-b577e041d61a_720x720.png\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdfbc4ecd-6504-47d3-a64a-b577e041d61a_720x720.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdfbc4ecd-6504-47d3-a64a-b577e041d61a_720x720.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdfbc4ecd-6504-47d3-a64a-b577e041d61a_720x720.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdfbc4ecd-6504-47d3-a64a-b577e041d61a_720x720.png 1456w\" alt=\"\" width=\"392\" height=\"392\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/dfbc4ecd-6504-47d3-a64a-b577e041d61a_720x720.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:720,&quot;width&quot;:720,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:392,&quot;bytes&quot;:1633343,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null}\" \/><\/picture>\n<div class=\"image-link-expand\"><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"image-caption\">Lots and lots of babies!<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"subscribe-widget is-signed-up\" data-component-name=\"SubscribeWidget\">\n<p class=\"button-wrapper\"><button class=\"pencraft pc-reset pencraft subscribe-btn tw-cursor-pointer tw-appearance-none tw-whitespace-nowrap tw-border-0 tw-border-solid disabled:tw-cursor-not-allowed tw-relative tw-flex tw-items-center tw-justify-center tw-gap-3 tw-font-body tw-text-sm tw-leading-sm tw-tracking-sm tw-font-semibold tw-px-5 tw-h-button tw-rounded hover:tw-opacity-80 disabled:tw-opacity-70  tw-bg-pub-accent tw-text-pub-accent-inverse\" tabindex=\"0\" type=\"button\" data-href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/subscribe?utm_medium=web&amp;utm_source=subscribe-widget&amp;utm_content=144657136\">Upgrade to paid<\/button><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Writing in the\u00a0<em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/birthrates-global-decline-cause-ddaf8be2\" rel=\"\">Wall Street Journal<\/a><\/em>\u00a0earlier this week Greg Ip and Janet Adamy explored the possibility that the world\u2019s population may peak and begin to fall far sooner than demographers have previously projected:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The world is at a startling demographic milestone. Sometime soon, the global fertility rate will drop below the point needed to keep population constant. It may have already happened.<\/p>\n<p>Fertility is falling almost everywhere, for women across all levels of income, education and labor-force participation. The falling birthrates come with huge implications for the way people live, how economies grow and the standings of the world\u2019s superpowers.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3301af02-e7e0-42ed-a14d-14fdf9ad2a74_818x614.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3301af02-e7e0-42ed-a14d-14fdf9ad2a74_818x614.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3301af02-e7e0-42ed-a14d-14fdf9ad2a74_818x614.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3301af02-e7e0-42ed-a14d-14fdf9ad2a74_818x614.png 1456w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"100vw\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3301af02-e7e0-42ed-a14d-14fdf9ad2a74_818x614.png\" sizes=\"100vw\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3301af02-e7e0-42ed-a14d-14fdf9ad2a74_818x614.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3301af02-e7e0-42ed-a14d-14fdf9ad2a74_818x614.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3301af02-e7e0-42ed-a14d-14fdf9ad2a74_818x614.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3301af02-e7e0-42ed-a14d-14fdf9ad2a74_818x614.png 1456w\" alt=\"\" width=\"663\" height=\"497.6552567237164\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/3301af02-e7e0-42ed-a14d-14fdf9ad2a74_818x614.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:614,&quot;width&quot;:818,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:663,&quot;bytes&quot;:127396,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null}\" \/><\/picture>\n<div class=\"image-link-expand\"><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"image-caption\">Source:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/Graphs\/\" rel=\"\">UN 2022<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The United Nations, in its\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/\" rel=\"\">World Population Prospects 2022<\/a>, projected in its medium variant scenario that global population would peak in the 2080s at about 10.4 billion people. The WSJ reports that figure represents a substantial drop from U.N. projections just five years earlier: \u201cIn 2017 the U.N. projected world population, then 7.6 billion, would keep climbing to 11.2 billion in 2100.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.healthdata.org\/research-analysis\/library\/fertility-mortality-migration-and-population-scenarios-195-countries-and\" rel=\"\">Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in 2020<\/a>\u00a0projected a global population in 2100 of about 1.5 billion less than the United Nations:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9.73 billion (8.84\u201310.9) people and decline to 8.79 billion (6\u00b783\u201311\u00b78) in 2100.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Both the U.N. and IHME foresee projected 2100 population to be less than demographers had previously projected. The trend in population projections for these organizations is down.<\/p>\n<p>In contrast, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/pure.iiasa.ac.at\/id\/eprint\/19487\/\" rel=\"\">recent update to its Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios<\/a>\u00a0increased its 2100 population projection by more than 1 billion people in its \u201cmiddle of the road\u201d scenario:<\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\"><\/div>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Birth Dearth or Baby Boom? A new debate on where global population may be headed Lots and lots of babies! Upgrade to paid Writing in the\u00a0Wall Street Journal\u00a0earlier this week Greg Ip and Janet Adamy explored the possibility that the world\u2019s population may peak and begin to fall far sooner than demographers have previously projected: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,4,6],"tags":[9866,12998,34593,606,1371,34592,30429],"class_list":["post-68190","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-environment","category-liberty","tag-birth-rate","tag-global-population","tag-growth-modelling","tag-overpopulation","tag-population","tag-population-growth-models","tag-roger-pielke-jr"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68190","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=68190"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68190\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":68191,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68190\/revisions\/68191"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=68190"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=68190"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=68190"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}