{"id":68145,"date":"2024-05-17T15:34:15","date_gmt":"2024-05-17T20:34:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=68145"},"modified":"2024-05-17T15:34:15","modified_gmt":"2024-05-17T20:34:15","slug":"10-premises-behind-collapse-2050","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=68145","title":{"rendered":"10 Premises Behind Collapse 2050"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10 Premises Behind Collapse 2050<\/a><\/h3>\n

What does “collapse” mean? What will the downfall of civilization look like? What am I suggesting people do? What if I’m wrong?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"10
Photo by Yaoqi<\/a> \/ Unsplash<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/header>\n
People look at my username on\u00a0Twitter<\/a>\u00a0or title of this website and jump to conclusions about the way I think. Some ‘get’ me straight away, while others formulate their own incorrect narratives.<\/p>\n

What does “collapse” mean? What will the downfall of civilization look like? What am I suggesting people do? What if I’m wrong?<\/p>\n

To better understand my thinking on collapse, read my 10 premises below and share your own in the comments.<\/p>\n

Premise 1: Existential risks are converging<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is not just about rising CO2. There are converging crises driving collapse. The combination of climate change, ecological destruction,\u00a0declining EROEI<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0AI<\/a>\u00a0will overwhelm civilization at some point.<\/p>\n

Regardless of the cause, our fate ultimately comes down to our ability to grow food – something we have done for about 12,000 years under a stable climate. Agriculture requires predictability. Modern agriculture requires energy (transportation, mechanization, fertilizer). The poly-crisis is straining our ability to produce enough food to feed 8+ billion people.<\/p>\n

AI is the wildcard, but it is emerging at such a speed that the risk of unpredictable damage is growing rapidly.<\/p>\n

Note how I didn’t mention nuclear war or civil strife. While I believe these become more probable as the poly-crisis emerges, these are symptoms and not causes.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
The Poly-Crisis<\/div>\n
I\u2019m afraid the best we can hope for now is to delay the inevitable and mitigate the consequences.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"\"<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Premise 2: Collapse is a mathematical certainty<\/strong><\/p>\n

Collapse – however you define it – is almost a mathematical certainty at this point. The economic system, regulatory capture and individual behaviors are baked into the maintenance of civilization. Stepping back requires a decline in living standards, so few will voluntarily do so.<\/p>\n

Importantly, the ‘math’ suggests a discontinuous change in the\u00a0future<\/em>, not the\u00a0past<\/em>. Those relying on civilization’s record of success – built on a temporary influx of high EROEI energy, no less – will miss the left turn as it approaches.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10 Premises Behind Collapse 2050 What does “collapse” mean? What will the downfall of civilization look like? What am I suggesting people do? What if I’m wrong? Photo by Yaoqi \/ Unsplash People look at my username on\u00a0Twitter\u00a0or title of this website and jump to conclusions about the way I think. Some ‘get’ me straight […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[150,34045,4766,1149,690,34252],"class_list":["post-68145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-survival-2","tag-collapse","tag-collapse2050","tag-mitigation","tag-preparation","tag-risk","tag-sarah-connor"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=68145"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68145\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":68146,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68145\/revisions\/68146"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=68145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=68145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=68145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}