{"id":67933,"date":"2024-05-08T12:20:48","date_gmt":"2024-05-08T17:20:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=67933"},"modified":"2024-05-08T12:20:48","modified_gmt":"2024-05-08T17:20:48","slug":"an-alarming-trend-is-developing-in-us-shale-oil-production","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=67933","title":{"rendered":"An Alarming Trend Is Developing In US Shale Oil Production"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"flex flex-col items-start justify-between\">\n<div class=\"flex w-full justify-between\">\n<h3 class=\"mb-18 break-words text-6x-large-b text-share-text md:mb-16 lg:text-7x-large-b\" data-test-id=\"post-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4688683-an-alarming-trend-is-developing-in-us-shale-oil-production\">An Alarming Trend Is Developing In US Shale Oil Production<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div>\n<p class=\"mb-16 text-4x-large-b\" data-test-id=\"article-summary-title\"><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"mb-24 Dw1An\">\n<li class=\"\" data-test-id=\"article-summary-item\">U.S. oil production is currently around ~13 million b\/d.<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-test-id=\"article-summary-item\">But despite the overall meaningful decrease in Lower 48 gas production, associated gas production remains strong.<\/li>\n<li class=\"paywall-full-summary\" data-test-id=\"article-summary-item\">In addition, EIA&#8217;s reported weekly NGL production continues to outpace crude production growth.<\/li>\n<li class=\"paywall-full-summary\" data-test-id=\"article-summary-item\">The market still falsely believes that US shale will continue for many years to come, but we think the reality is different from that.<\/li>\n<li class=\"paywall-full-summary\" data-test-id=\"article-summary-item\">I do much more than just articles at HFI Research: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/checkout\/mp_735?source=content_type%3Areact%7Curl_first_level%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Aauthor_bullets%3A5006891%7Csection_asset%3Aauthor_bullets%7CHFI%20Research\">Learn More \u00bb<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"\">\n<div class=\"paywall-full-content R6FbO flex sa-text-content sa-media-content sa-table-content sa-content-helpers print:block\">\n<div class=\"w-0 grow print:w-auto\">\n<div class=\"T2G6W\" data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1699372906\/image_1699372906.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1699372906\/image_1699372906.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1699372906\/image_1699372906.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1699372906\/image_1699372906.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1699372906\/image_1699372906.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1699372906\/image_1699372906.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1699372906\/image_1699372906.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1699372906\/image_1699372906.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/cdn\/s3\/uploads\/getty_images\/1699372906\/image_1699372906.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" alt=\"Red Electric Megaphone on Red Background Stock Photo\" width=\"1536px\" height=\"1024px\" data-id=\"1699372906\" data-type=\"getty-image\" \/>mustafaU<\/picture><\/figure>\n<p>EIA\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/petroleum\/supply\/weekly\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">oil storage report<\/a>\u00a0was fairly bullish today, with the crude draw of 6.4 million bbls outpacing our forecast of -4.33 million bbls. More importantly, in these weekly reports, we watch just how accurate we are at estimating U.S. crude production. And so far, things are<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">\u00a0looking good.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><a href=\"https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2024\/4\/24\/5006891-17139815270824268_origin.png\" rel=\"lightbox\" data-width=\"1638\" data-height=\"1288\" data-og-image-twitter_small_card=\"true\" data-og-image-twitter_large_card=\"true\" data-og-image-twitter_image_post=\"true\" data-og-image-msn=\"true\" data-og-image-facebook=\"true\" data-og-image-google_news=\"true\" data-og-image-google_plus=\"true\" data-og-image-linkedin=\"true\"><img decoding=\"async\" contenteditable=\"false\" src=\"https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2024\/4\/24\/5006891-17139815270824268.png\" alt=\"us oil production\" \/><\/a><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">HFIR<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Looking at our real-time US oil production data, we saw a brief spike in implied US oil production in March. Considering that the weather fully normalized in the 2nd half of February and into March, US shale oil producers likely brought back production to full capacity by early March and sold off stored-up inventory. This likely caused a dislocation in our modified adjustment, which showed a false bump higher in production.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Why do we say that it was temporary? Well, if you look at the latest reading, the implied US oil<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\">\u00a0production figure is back down to ~13 million b\/d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Another good way for readers to gauge just how accurate we are on US oil production is by looking at our US weekly crude storage estimate figure vs the EIA. If our draw is smaller than what EIA reports, then it implies a lower US oil production figure than we estimated&#8230;<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An Alarming Trend Is Developing In US Shale Oil Production Summary U.S. oil production is currently around ~13 million b\/d. But despite the overall meaningful decrease in Lower 48 gas production, associated gas production remains strong. In addition, EIA&#8217;s reported weekly NGL production continues to outpace crude production growth. The market still falsely believes that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[251,4516,3948,7893],"class_list":["post-67933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-eia","tag-energy-information-agency","tag-seeking-alpha","tag-us-shale-industry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67933","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=67933"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67933\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":67934,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67933\/revisions\/67934"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=67933"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=67933"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=67933"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}