{"id":67640,"date":"2024-04-27T13:21:16","date_gmt":"2024-04-27T18:21:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=67640"},"modified":"2024-04-27T13:21:16","modified_gmt":"2024-04-27T18:21:16","slug":"pinning-down-climate-changes-role-in-extreme-weather","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=67640","title":{"rendered":"Pinning down climate change’s role in extreme weather"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pinning down climate change’s role in extreme weather and did climate change contribute to the flooding in Dubai?<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
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In the wake of any unusual weather event, someone inevitably asks, \u201cDid climate change cause this?\u201d In the most literal sense, that answer is almost always no. Climate change is never the sole cause of hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, or any other disaster, because weather variability always plays a primary role in the genesis of the events.<\/p>\n

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However, climate change can make these events more intense and, given the\u00a0non-linearities in the damages<\/a>, this can vastly increase the damage and misery from extreme weather. So quantifying the role of climate change is therefore of great interest.<\/p>\n

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intense rainfall over Dubai<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

To do this, scientists turn to\u00a0extreme event attribution<\/a><\/em>\u00a0studies. These rely on three separate lines of evidence. The first is the observational record: If you have good observations of the climate over a long enough period, the data set can be statistically analyzed to determine whether the event in question is becoming more frequent as the climate warms.<\/p>\n

But correlation does not prove causality, so you need the second line of evidence: a physical understanding of why a particular extreme is getting worse as the climate warms. It should be obvious to readers of this substack why, in a warmer world, we expect to get more frequent heat waves. This physical understanding adds to our con\ufb01dence that climate change is a factor in the occurrence of heat waves.<\/p>\n

Finally, we look to computer simulations of the climate. The most common approach is to produce two different simulations of the climate: One simulation is of the real world, so it includes increasing greenhouse gases and a warming climate…<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pinning down climate change’s role in extreme weather and did climate change contribute to the flooding in Dubai? In the wake of any unusual weather event, someone inevitably asks, \u201cDid climate change cause this?\u201d In the most literal sense, that answer is almost always no. Climate change is never the sole cause of hurricanes, heat […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[34242,141,8399,1001,369,30990,34392],"class_list":["post-67640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environment","tag-andrew-dessler","tag-climate-change","tag-dubai","tag-flooding","tag-global-warming","tag-substack","tag-the-climate-brink"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67640","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=67640"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67640\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":67641,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67640\/revisions\/67641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=67640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=67640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=67640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}