{"id":67592,"date":"2024-04-26T14:20:03","date_gmt":"2024-04-26T19:20:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=67592"},"modified":"2024-04-26T14:20:03","modified_gmt":"2024-04-26T19:20:03","slug":"expect-big-negative-revisions-to-bls-monthly-jobs-in-2023-gdp-too","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=67592","title":{"rendered":"Expect Big Negative Revisions to BLS Monthly Jobs in 2023, GDP Too"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-1 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"alignwide wp-block-post-title has-gigantic-font-size\"><a href=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/economics\/expect-big-negative-revisions-to-bls-monthly-jobs-in-2023-gdp-too\/\">Expect Big Negative Revisions to BLS Monthly Jobs in 2023, GDP Too<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide are-vertically-aligned-top is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-3 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<div class=\"entry-content wp-block-post-content is-layout-flow wp-block-post-content-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>Yesterday, the BLS released a little-read jobs report that shows reported jobs in 2023 may be wildly overstated. In turn, that means GDP is likely overstated as well.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-65827\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BED-Net-Jobs-2023-Q3.png?resize=1024%2C685&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BED-Net-Jobs-2023-Q3.png?resize=1024%2C685&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BED-Net-Jobs-2023-Q3.png?resize=300%2C201&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BED-Net-Jobs-2023-Q3.png?resize=768%2C513&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BED-Net-Jobs-2023-Q3.png?w=1261&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 1261w\" alt=\"\" width=\"713\" height=\"477\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Business Employment Dynamics (BED) data and and Monthly Job Data both from the BLS, chart by Mish<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>BED Chart Notes<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Data is from the BLS\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/bdm\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener noreferrer\">Business Employment Dynamics<\/a>\u00a0(BED) report and the BLS monthly jobs reports (CES).<\/li>\n<li>BED data is less timely but far more accurate than the BLS monthly jobs reports\/<\/li>\n<li>For 2023 Q3, the BED reports shows gross job gains of 7.559 million and gross job losses of 7.751 million for a net loss of 192,000 jobs.<\/li>\n<li>The BLS monthly jobs reports show a gain of 640,000 jobs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>BED Job Gains and Losses by Quarter<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-65829\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BED-Job-Gains-and-Losses-by-Quarter-2023-Q3.png?resize=1024%2C771&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BED-Job-Gains-and-Losses-by-Quarter-2023-Q3.png?resize=1024%2C771&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BED-Job-Gains-and-Losses-by-Quarter-2023-Q3.png?resize=300%2C226&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BED-Job-Gains-and-Losses-by-Quarter-2023-Q3.png?resize=768%2C578&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/BED-Job-Gains-and-Losses-by-Quarter-2023-Q3.png?w=1248&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 1248w\" alt=\"\" width=\"713\" height=\"537\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><strong>Summary of Major Differences<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-65828\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Summary-of-Major-Differences-BLS-BED-CES-QCEW.png?resize=1024%2C714&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Summary-of-Major-Differences-BLS-BED-CES-QCEW.png?resize=1024%2C714&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Summary-of-Major-Differences-BLS-BED-CES-QCEW.png?resize=300%2C209&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Summary-of-Major-Differences-BLS-BED-CES-QCEW.png?resize=768%2C535&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Summary-of-Major-Differences-BLS-BED-CES-QCEW.png?w=1488&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 1488w\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"714\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>Note that BED data is based on 9.1 million establishments while the monthly jobs reports are only based on 670,000 establishments.<\/p>\n<p><em>The monthly reports are timely but inaccurate. And the BLS annual benchmark revisions do not also revise the monthly numbers. This makes year-over-year comparisons inaccurate as well.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>I created the lead chart by netting BED data and comparing the BED net jobs to net quarterly jobs from the CES data.<\/p>\n<p><strong>BED vs CES<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2023 Q2 BED: +332,000<\/li>\n<li>2023 Q3 BED: -192,000<\/li>\n<li>2023 Q2 CES: +821,000<\/li>\n<li>2023 Q3 BED: +640,000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>CES Overstatement<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2023 Q2 CES Overstatement: 489,000 Jobs<\/li>\n<li>2023 Q3 CES Overstatement: 832,000 Jobs<\/li>\n<li>Q2+Q3 Overstatement: 1.321 Million Jobs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Thus, the BLS says that the BLS monthly job reports for 2023 Q2 and Q3 are overstated by a total of 1.321 million jobs.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jobs Up 303,000 Full Time Employment Down 6,000 in March<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In March, the economy continued to add a high percentage of government and social assistance jobs. Part time employment rose by 691,000 as full time employment fell by 6,000.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-65513\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Nonfarm-Payrolls-and-Employment-Level-2024-03-1.png?resize=1024%2C646&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Nonfarm-Payrolls-and-Employment-Level-2024-03-1.png?w=1371&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 1371w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Nonfarm-Payrolls-and-Employment-Level-2024-03-1.png?resize=300%2C189&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Nonfarm-Payrolls-and-Employment-Level-2024-03-1.png?resize=1024%2C646&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mishtalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Nonfarm-Payrolls-and-Employment-Level-2024-03-1.png?resize=768%2C485&amp;quality=80&amp;ssl=1 768w\" alt=\"\" width=\"1371\" height=\"865\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Nonfarm payrolls and employment levels from the BLS, chart by Mish.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-border-color has-contrast-border-color has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-11 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Expect Big Negative Revisions to BLS Monthly Jobs in 2023, GDP Too Yesterday, the BLS released a little-read jobs report that shows reported jobs in 2023 may be wildly overstated. In turn, that means GDP is likely overstated as well. Business Employment Dynamics (BED) data and and Monthly Job Data both from the BLS, chart [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[353,379,4549,14648,13390,34371,2084],"class_list":["post-67592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-gdp","tag-government","tag-gross-domestic-product","tag-michael-shedlock","tag-mishtalk","tag-revised-statistics","tag-statistics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67592","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=67592"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67592\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":67593,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67592\/revisions\/67593"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=67592"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=67592"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=67592"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}