{"id":67224,"date":"2024-04-05T16:10:09","date_gmt":"2024-04-05T21:10:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=67224"},"modified":"2024-04-05T16:10:09","modified_gmt":"2024-04-05T21:10:09","slug":"crude-food-prices-jump-as-looming-israel-iran-conflict-spark-1970s-oil-shock-fears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=67224","title":{"rendered":"Crude, Food Prices Jump As Looming Israel-Iran Conflict Spark\u00a01970s\u00a0Oil Shock Fears"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Crude, Food Prices Jump As Looming Israel-Iran Conflict Spark 1970s Oil Shock Fears<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n
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Larry MacDonald of\u00a0The Bear Traps Report<\/em><\/a>\u00a0penned a very informative note last month that\u00a0outlined<\/a>, “2023-2024 look a lot like 1973-1974.” He said, “We’re one event away from a 1970s-style stagflation explosion…” History books remind us that the 1973 oil embargo shook the global energy market.<\/p>\n

We were reminded of MacDonald’s note because the global benchmark Brent is currently being subjected to a major repricing event of geopolitical risk as Israel makes preparations for a potential retaliation by Tehran after a precision strike in Syria earlier this week killed top Iranian commanders.<\/p>\n

“The market now knows that some kind of retaliation from Iran will likely come, but it doesn’t know when and where and what, and that creates a great discomfort and nervousness,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB, told Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

On Thursday, UBS desk trader Alexander Gray\u00a0outlined several bullish factors<\/a>\u00a0into Brent’s surge that has the benchmark around $91\/bbl handle:<\/p>\n

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  1. Rally \/ buying right into the 14:30 New York energy close<\/u>\u00a0<\/strong>– suggests heavy index fund prepositioning ahead of GSCI roll onset tomorrow where energy will be weighted in the index<\/em><\/li>\n
  2. Geopolitics<\/u>\u00a0<\/strong>– reports of potential attacks within Iran and also potential\u00a0retaliation toward Israel following Monday’s airstrikes.<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n
  3. Bullish consensus and flow<\/u>\u00a0<\/strong>– a number of Street strategists have been out today talking about\u00a0upside risk toward the $95-100<\/a>\u00a0range in crude. Meanwhile, flows here have skewed\u00a0toward upside buying in the options space<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n
  4. Technicals<\/u>\u00a0<\/strong>– Front-month WTI crude oil just completed a ‘golden cross’ technical formation with the 50- and 200-day moving average crossover<\/strong>. The front month is aimed at $88.58 above; $91.08 is key as the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level in Brent… which is precisely where Brent is trading at this moment..<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

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    …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Crude, Food Prices Jump As Looming Israel-Iran Conflict Spark 1970s Oil Shock Fears Larry MacDonald of\u00a0The Bear Traps Report\u00a0penned a very informative note last month that\u00a0outlined, “2023-2024 look a lot like 1973-1974.” He said, “We’re one event away from a 1970s-style stagflation explosion…” History books remind us that the 1973 oil embargo shook the global […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[441,1049,522,588,776,862,4318],"class_list":["post-67224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-geopolitics","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-middle-east","tag-oil","tag-syria","tag-war","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67224","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=67224"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67224\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":67225,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67224\/revisions\/67225"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=67224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=67224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=67224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}