{"id":66784,"date":"2024-02-10T06:48:58","date_gmt":"2024-02-10T11:48:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=66784"},"modified":"2024-02-10T06:48:58","modified_gmt":"2024-02-10T11:48:58","slug":"todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh-lx-infinite-growth-finite-planet-what-could-possibly-go-wrong-part-two","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=66784","title":{"rendered":"Today\u2019s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh\u00a0LX–Infinite growth. Finite planet. What could possibly go wrong? Part Two"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Today\u2019s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh\u00a0LX<\/strong><\/h3>\n

July 19, 2022 (original posting date)<\/p>\n

Athens, Greece (1984). Photo by\u00a0author.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Infinite growth. Finite planet. What could possibly go wrong? Part Two<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is Part Two of a contemplation regarding what humanity\u2019s future path \u2018may\u2019 look like. Part One can be found here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Based on the evidence found in our pre\/history and our biological proclivities (both of which I touched upon in Part One<\/a>), it would appear we are likely to experience a variety of crises as we increasingly encounter diminishing returns on our investments in complexity and go through the withdrawal of surplus energy[1]<\/a> that has fed our \u2018growth\u2019 and supported our organisational \u2018problem solving\u2019 abilities, but also because we have created and come to rely significantly upon systems that require such growth to keep from collapsing (for example, our increasingly debt-based financial\/economic\/monetary systems that, in turn, support our expanding energy-averaging systems and ensuring overexploited regions can be \u2018maintained\u2019\u200a\u2014\u200ai.e. globalised trade).<\/p>\n

Throw on top of this the overshoot predicament and one should realise that the future is sure to not<\/strong> be the one painted by the techno-cornucopians who optimistically envision more of a Star Trek future than a Mad Max or The Road one.<\/p>\n

I, personally, am of the opinion that \u2018collapse\u2019 of some type is imminent[2]<\/a> primarily due to our overwhelming reliance upon important finite resources (especially fossil fuels) that we are now experiencing significant diminishing returns upon (and, yes, it\u2019s an opinion; as is every other view of the future no matter how much \u2018science\u2019 is behind it or how sophisticated the model used to project the trends going forward\u200a\u2014\u200asome are better than others but only the passage of time can ultimately decide which, in retrospect, were accurate).<\/p>\n

At the same time we are going to be increasingly impacted by environmental\/ecological crises brought about by our ecological overshoot and its concomitant overwhelming of the planetary sinks that previously helped cleanse the waste products of our expansion and technological creations[3]<\/a>\u200a\u2014\u200ato say little regarding the impacts that are going to be experienced around diminishing returns on food production and its very real reliance upon fossil fuels. Whether it be increasing frequency of extreme weather events and\/or toxic environments leading to physical\/physiological consequences for its inhabitants, including humans, the repercussions of our expansion appear to be growing in nature and impact.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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How we view \u2018collapse\u2019 depends very much on our interpretation of it. It may be \u2018the end of the world as we know it\u2019 but that does not mean it will be dark and dreary. That perspective may be one that has been widely propagated in order to \u2018scare\u2019 people into believing the status quo economic and power structures need to continue and be supported at all costs. They do not.<\/p>\n

\u2018Collapse\u2019 seems scary because it is mostly about uncertainty, something humans abhor. We don\u2019t know what the future holds and it reduces our cognitive dissonance greatly to cling to some certain future, even if completely and utterly wrong.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve shared before what Tainter says about \u2018collapse\u2019 and it\u2019s not all that bad depending upon one\u2019s point of view:<\/p>\n

\u201cCollapse\u2026is a political process. It may, and often does, have consequences in such areas as economics, art, and literature, but it is fundamentally a matter of the sociopolitical sphere. A society has collapsed when it displays a rapid, significant loss of an established level of sociopolitical complexity\u2026[It manifests itself] as:
\n\u00b7 a lower degree of stratification and social differentiation;
\n\u00b7 less economic and occupational specialization, of individuals, groups, and territories;
\n\u00b7 less centralized control; that is, less regulation and integration of diverse economic and political groups by elites;
\n\u00b7 less behavioural control and regimentation; less investment in the epiphenomena of complexity, those elements that define the concept of \u2018civilization\u2019: monumental architecture, artistic and literary achievements, and the like;
\n\u00b7 less flow of information between individuals, between political and economic groups, and between a center and its periphery;
\n\u00b7 less sharing, trading, and redistribution of resources;
\n\u00b7 less overall coordination and organization of individuals and groups;
\n\u00b7 a smaller territory within a single political unit.\u201d[4]<\/a><\/p>\n

Some (most?) of these consequences may actually be welcomed by some, especially those who rail against what appears to be a growing tyranny of the ruling elite as we creep further into the banquet of consequences of our overshoot and diminishing returns on investments in complexity.<\/p>\n

However, the \u2018collapse\u2019 that may accompany overshoot\u200a\u2014\u200aa massive \u2018die-off\u2019\u200a\u2014\u200aseems a tad bit more cataclysmic depending upon how quickly such population reduction occurs. A relatively short recalibration of our population would, for all intents and purposes, appear truly calamitous to those experiencing it and most certainly would create a chaotic disintegration of the complexities we have come to rely upon for our survival. We have recently experienced the knock-on effects of shutting down world trade\/economies over the fears associated with a relatively mild novel coronavirus[5]<\/a>; the disruption of something far more impactful would make this seem very tame in comparison.<\/p>\n

It seems clear to me that we have predicaments creating a vice on our continuation of any type of complex society. And my thinking about how this might all unfold has led me to review more closely John Michael Greer\u2019s thesis that attempts to develop an ecological model of \u2018collapse\u2019. This \u2018catabolic collapse\u2019 suggests, at least in my interpretation, that we will see \u2018crises\u2019 that lead to more \u2018simplified\u2019 levels of society that then later experience more \u2018crises\u2019 resulting in another step down to an even simpler state and so on due to the fact that \u201cproduction fails to meet maintenance requirements for existing capital\u2026[and as a result get caught up in] a self-reinforcing cycle of contraction converting most capital to waste.\u201d[6]<\/a><\/p>\n

Given the increasing likelihood of \u2018collapse\u2019, it would seem we have two stark choices\/strategies (very similar to what Greer argues regarding Catabolic Collapse). Continue on attempting to sustain unsustainable systems, virtually guaranteeing an overshoot die-off of gargantuan proportions. Or, attempt to \u2018manage\u2019 our \u2018collapse\u2019 as it unfolds by being pre-emptive via purposeful downsizing[7]<\/a>, degrowing[8]<\/a>, and simplifying[9]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What this second option looks like depends almost entirely on those agreeing with this approach. In fact, I sense a growing bifurcation of opinions even within the \u2018degrowth\u2019 movement with some arguing for a very slow transition and movement towards \u2018green\/clean\u2019 technologies and others countering that such an approach is far too late and much more radical shifts need to be made if we are to have any \u2018hope\u2019 of making it thru the bottleneck we have created for our species (and others).<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, given the lack of consensus, the psychological processes that lead to significant denial and bargaining (to reduce cognitive dissonance)[10]<\/a>, and the fact that the ruling elite will likely fight with all their \u2018tools\u2019 to avoid the elimination of their control\/expansion of the wealth-generation\/extraction systems that provide their revenue streams (their primary motivation), it is most probable we will go with the first option above: attempt to sustain the unsustainable (probably via \u2018green\u2019 technology), which will then lead to mother nature choosing how the planet is rebalanced\u200a\u2014\u200aand our wishes and concerns will be null and void in this scenario.<\/p>\n

In addition, given our current geopolitics and the frequency at which a society\u2019s ruling elite choose war during times of stress, rather than diplomacy, I very much see the possibility of a global conflagration of conflict occurring\u200a\u2014\u200athat could, of course, go nuclear.<\/p>\n

As a result of all the above, I am increasingly leaning towards our future being far more dystopian in nature than utopian. The version of dystopia is still very much up to us I believe depending on what we do from this point onwards (my hope is that we make \u2018good\u2019 choices but my fear, as I admit above, is that doing so is beyond our capability because of the nature of our society\u2019s power structures and protection of them by those who leverage crises to their benefit; along with the human tendencies to defer to authority and the need to \u2018belong\u2019).<\/p>\n

Is there a way out of this conundrum? I personally waffle between \u2018hope\u2019 (something I wish for but really have no agency in) and despair (see image below).<\/p>\n

My \u2018hope\u2019 is that we will come to realise that our pursuit of the perpetual growth chalice is taking us to a dark place where few of us survive (and that would be many species, not just homo sapiens) and reverse our trajectory; what can referred to as \u2018degrowth\u2019: a purposeful cessation of our current path and \u2018deconstruction\u2019 of almost all our socioeconomic and sociopolitical excesses until we reach a standard of living and population level that is \u2018sustainable\u2019.<\/p>\n

My despair is that we will refuse to do this for a variety of reasons both psychological and biological in nature, but especially because if it is to have any positive impact we likely need to do it deeply and quickly. Instead, we will likely do everything we can to kick-the-growth-can-down-the-road to delay the inevitable and ultimately make the \u2018correction\u2019 all the more colossal in its size and scope; especially if, as Catton argues, we will have to undershoot our \u2018natural\u2019 carrying capacity by quite a bit given that everything we have done has reduced it significantly[11]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

So, basically I believe that if we continue to hold that more technology[12]<\/a> and money will address our issues, then I tend to think we will drift towards the darker dystopian path. If, however, we begin to \u2018collapse\u2019 on our own terms by degrowing, downsizing, and simplifying our societies we might be able to steer our future towards the lighter dystopian future where relatively small, local communities live within their region\u2019s carrying capacity and are in \u2018sync\u2019 with the ecological systems within which they live and depend upon. We cannot and should not continue to believe that humans exist above and beyond these systems. Frankly, without them we are destined to disappear as well.<\/p>\n

This \u2018light dystopian\u2019 vision, if you will, may appear calamitous to many because it is void of most of the technological \u2018conveniences\u2019 (what some have termed \u2018energy slaves\u2019) we currently embrace and is sure to involve much more manual labour and expose us to many of nature\u2019s uncertainties that we have come to believe we can tame and avoid. But as nature so often reminds us, although we are reluctant to admit it, it always bats last and has the final say.<\/p>\n

Given the evidence and my personal inclinations, more and more I\u2019m leaning towards the realisation that it is the \u2018scarier\u2019 dystopian future that we, or at least future generations, will experience.<\/p>\n

Of course only time will tell since making predictions is difficult, particularly if they\u2019re about the future\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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The following image was posted recently by someone on Facebook and I find it is frighteningly apropos to my personal reflections about our predicament:<\/p>\n

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[1]<\/a> See Dr. Tim Murphy\u2019s blog for more on this: https:\/\/surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com\/professional-area\/<\/a><\/p>\n

[2]<\/a> By \u2018imminent\u2019 I mean it\u2019s a matter of when, not if. It could be a relatively long-lasting decline as painted by John Michael Greer (https:\/\/newsociety.com\/books\/l\/the-long-descent-pdf?sitedomain=row<\/a>) and James Howard Kunstler (https:\/\/www.amazon.ca\/Long-Emergency-Converging-Catastrophes-Twenty-First\/dp\/0802142494<\/a>); or a relatively quick one as suggested by Jared Diamond for Easter Islanders (https:\/\/www.amazon.ca\/Collapse-Societies-Choose-Succeed-Revised\/dp\/0143117009<\/a>). Also note that I do not \u2018wish\u2019 for this outcome; while the \u2018effort justification\u2019 aspects of my mind would love to be proven right\u200a\u2014\u200agiven all the \u2018energy\u2019 I\u2019ve put into the \u2018collapse\u2019 narrative\u200a\u2014\u200aI have children whom I do NOT want to experience a \u2018declining\u2019 world constantly in crisis and with significant uncertainty.<\/p>\n

[3]<\/a> See this for evidence of our breaching of various planetary limits: https:\/\/www.stockholmresilience.org\/research\/planetary-boundaries\/the-nine-planetary-boundaries.html<\/a><\/p>\n

[4]<\/a> Tainter, J. The Collapse of Complex Societies. P. 4.<\/p>\n

[5]<\/a> Regardless of one\u2019s perspective on Covid-19 and its political roots and\/or implications, the millions of deaths attributed to it are but a fraction of several historical pandemics. The mortality rate for Covid has been relatively low compared to other \u2018plagues\u2019 that have spread through human populations and resulted in much more significant \u2018die-offs\u2019, such as the Black Death (1347\u20131351), Spanish Flu (1918\u20131919), Plague of Justinian (541\u2013542), Third Plague Pandemic (1855\u20131960). https:\/\/www.publichealthonline.org\/worst-global-pandemics-in-history\/<\/a><\/p>\n

[6]<\/a> https:\/\/www.ecosophia.net\/civilizations-fall-theory-catabolic-collapse\/<\/a><\/p>\n

[7]<\/a> See this (https:\/\/justcollapse.org\/<\/a>) for one version of how to do this in a \u2018just\u2019 manner.<\/p>\n

[8]<\/a> See https:\/\/degrowth.info\/degrowth<\/a> for one version of degrowth.<\/p>\n

[9]<\/a> Nate Hagens\u2019s podcast series provides some great insight into this approach: https:\/\/www.thegreatsimplification.com\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[10]<\/a> My second university degree was focused on psychology and anthropology (Honours Diploma, 1987, Western University). An Honours Diploma is equivalent to a Bachelor\u2019s Degree but Canadian universities do not give out second B.A.s to the same student and instead give these. At least that was the case during my 1980s post-secondary years. I also have a Bachelor of Education which is the field in which I spent my formal employment (Brock University, 1989, St. Catharines, Ontario); 10 years as a classroom teacher, 15 as an administrator.<\/p>\n

[11]<\/a> Catton, Jr., W.R.. Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change. University of Illinois Press, 1980. (ISBN 978\u20130\u2013252\u201300988\u20134)<\/p>\n

[12]<\/a> See Erik Michaels\u2019s https:\/\/problemspredicamentsandtechnology.blogspot.com\/<\/a> for some insight into why technology is perhaps our undoing, not some ingenious \u2018saviour\u2019 for humanity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today\u2019s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh\u00a0LX July 19, 2022 (original posting date) Athens, Greece (1984). Photo by\u00a0author. Infinite growth. Finite planet. What could possibly go wrong? Part Two This is Part Two of a contemplation regarding what humanity\u2019s future path \u2018may\u2019 look like. Part One can be found here. Based on the evidence found in our pre\/history […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3,4,5,6,7],"tags":[150,22093,2327,391,2328,10003,14221,5833,30370,33947],"class_list":["post-66784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","category-environment","category-geopolitics","category-liberty","category-survival-2","tag-collapse","tag-ecological-overshoot","tag-finite-planet","tag-growth","tag-infinite-growth","tag-resource-limits","tag-societal-collapse","tag-steve-bull","tag-todays-contemplation","tag-todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66784","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=66784"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66784\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66785,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66784\/revisions\/66785"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=66784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=66784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=66784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}