{"id":66408,"date":"2023-12-24T16:24:53","date_gmt":"2023-12-24T21:24:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=66408"},"modified":"2023-12-24T16:24:53","modified_gmt":"2023-12-24T21:24:53","slug":"mark-jeftovic-the-fed-is-afraid-of-something","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=66408","title":{"rendered":"Mark Jeftovic: The Fed is Afraid\u2026 of Something"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Mark Jeftovic: The Fed is Afraid\u2026 of Something<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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In the last issue we covered how\u00a0Ecoinmetrics posited<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0that the Bitcoin rally wasn\u2019t being confirmed on-chain and that there was a chance of a 10% pullback in the month following his analysis, which was published November 22.<\/p>\n

We did get a pullback, from $44K, which touched bottom around $40K before reversing, for a roughly 10% retracement.<\/p>\n

If that was the pullback, it was kind of a snoozer, lasting all of 72 hours (although as I type this on Dec 17, it does look as if Bitcoin is weakening around the low-40\u2019s \u2013 and could drop below 40K over the next few days).<\/p>\n

If you are new to this sort of thing (this is your first Bitcoin cycle), you should be warned that there will be larger pullbacks, in the order of 25% or more. Or more.<\/p>\n

Remember that \u2013 and remember our guidance to people experiencing fear, uncertainty or doubt during said pullbacks:<\/p>\n

The number one attribute required to navigate a full Bitcoin cycle is conviction. The entire point of The Crypto Capitalist Manifesto was to provide the basis for that.<\/p>\n

If anybody here got shaken out during this pullback (we have a lot of new readers to the list), my advice would be to close out your positions here and unsubscribe from this list.<\/p>\n

What did happen on Dec 13th, was the Fed basically pivoted: they held the benchmark rate, again \u2013 then signalled that they were now looking toward cuts in 2024.<\/p>\n

The dot plot moved immediately to reflect a 75bp cut over 2024:<\/p>\n

With even unofficial Fed spox Nick Timiraos (\u201cNikileaks\u201d) seemingly caught flat-footed:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Powell pivot begins.<\/p>\n

Dec 1: \u201cIt would be premature to \u2026 speculate on when policy might ease.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dec 13: Rate cuts are something that \u201cbegins to come into view\u201d and \u201cclearly is a topic of discussion.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mark Jeftovic: The Fed is Afraid\u2026 of Something In the last issue we covered how\u00a0Ecoinmetrics posited\u00a0that the Bitcoin rally wasn\u2019t being confirmed on-chain and that there was a chance of a 10% pullback in the month following his analysis, which was published November 22. We did get a pullback, from $44K, which touched bottom around […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[122,213,303,11722,3650],"class_list":["post-66408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-central-bank","tag-dollar-collapse","tag-fed","tag-mark-jeftovic","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66408","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=66408"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66408\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66409,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66408\/revisions\/66409"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=66408"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=66408"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=66408"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}