{"id":66363,"date":"2023-12-14T10:17:46","date_gmt":"2023-12-14T15:17:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=66363"},"modified":"2023-12-14T10:20:04","modified_gmt":"2023-12-14T15:20:04","slug":"todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh-xxxviii-the-predicament-of-ecological-overshoot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=66363","title":{"rendered":"Today\u2019s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh\u00a0XXXVIII–The ‘Predicament’ of Ecological Overshoot"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Today\u2019s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh\u00a0XXXVIII<\/h3>\n

January 25, 2022<\/p>\n

Tulum, Mexico (1986) Photo by\u00a0author<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The ‘Predicament’ of Ecological Overshoot<\/strong><\/p>\n

The following contemplation has been prompted by some commentary regarding a recent article<\/a> by Megan Seibert of the Real Green New Deal Project<\/a>. It pulls together a couple of threads that I\u2019ve been discussing the past few months\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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There is no \u2018remedy\u2019 for our predicament of ecological overshoot, at least not one that most of us would like to implement. While it would be nice to have a \u2018solution\u2019, we\u2019ve painted ourselves into a corner from which there appears to be no \u2018escape\u2019\u200a\u2014\u200afor a variety of reasons.<\/p>\n

Most people don\u2019t want to contemplate such an inevitability but the writing seems to be pretty clearly on the wall: we have \u2018blossomed\u2019 as a species in both numbers and living standards almost exclusively because of the exploitation of a one-time, finite cache of an energy-rich resource that has encountered significant diminishing returns but whose extraction and secondary impacts have led to pronounced and irreversible (at least in human lifespan terms) environmental\/ecological destruction; this expansion of homo sapiens has blown well past the natural carrying capacity of our planetary environment and like any other species that experiences this the future can only be one of a massive \u2018collapse\u2019\u200a\u2014\u200aboth in population numbers and sociocultural complexities.<\/p>\n

Also like every other animal on this planet, we are hard-wired to avoid pain and seek out pleasure. But unlike other species we have a unique tool-making ability that we can use to help us address this genetic predisposition. So instead of accepting our painful plight and because of our complex cognitive abilities we have crafted a variety of pleasurable narratives to help us deny the impending reality\u200a\u2014\u200afew of us \u2018enjoy\u2019 contemplating our mortality, so we avoid it or create comforting stories to soothe our anxieties and reduce our cognitive dissonance (an afterlife of some kind being one of the most common).<\/p>\n

Throw on top of this the propensity for those at the top of our complex social structures to leverage crises to meet their primary motivation (control\/expansion of the wealth-generation\/extraction systems that provide their revenue streams and positions of \u2018power\u2019), and we have the perfect storm of circumstances to craft soothing stories of \u2018solutions\u2019\u200a\u2014\u200aespecially through industrial production of \u2018green\/clean\u2019 energy.<\/p>\n

Conveniently left out of these tales (through both omission and commission) are the \u2018costs\u2019 of these \u2018remedies\u2019:
\n1) The actual unsustainability of industrial products dependent upon finite resources, including the fossil fuel platform.
\n2) The environmentally-\/ecologically-destructive extraction and production processes required to construct, maintain, and then dispose of these \u2018clean\u2019 products.
\n3) The impossibility of any proposed energy alternative to fossil fuels to support our current energy-intensive complexities.
\n4) The social injustices being foisted upon peoples in the regions being exploited for many of the resources required for \u2018green\u2019 products.
\n5) The geopolitical chess games being played primarily over control of the resources\u200a\u2014\u200aand the very real possibility of large-scale wars because of these.
\n6) The highlighting of immediately perceived benefits but the hiding of externalised negative consequences (that is made easier because of temporal lags in some of the effects).<\/p>\n

Our propensity for \u2018trusting\u2019 authority combines with our desire to deny negative outcomes and leads the vast majority of people to believe that the oxymoronic solution of \u2018green\u2019 energy is real and achievable. Not only can we overcome the unfortunate consequences of our growth, but we can transition and sustain, no, improve, our standards of living if only we pursue with all our resources (both physical and monetary) the production of technologies cheered on by our \u2018leaders\u2019\u200a\u2014\u200awho just happen to profit handsomely from this. All it takes is belief\u2026and, of course, the funnelling of LOTS of fiat currency into the hands of the ruling class.<\/p>\n

Adding to the complexity of all of this, we walking\/talking apes are highly emotional beings and loss impacts us significantly. We go through a rather complicated grieving process to come to grips with the negative emotions that accompany loss. The increasing recognition that we exist on a finite planet with finite resources and that we have reached or surpassed a tipping point in what we can \u2018sustain\u2019 of our social and physical complexities brings significant grief\u200a\u2014\u200afew want the good times or conveniences to ever end. We experience a variety of stages in coming to accept our loss. Psychologist Elisabeth Kubler-Ross first proposed a five-stage process for this: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance.<\/p>\n

Most people, I would argue, are in one of the first three stages at this particular juncture of time. Many are still in complete denial. They continue to believe that things will work out just fine and that the Cassandras shouting about the apocalypse are just plain \u2018kooky\u2019. There are some who are indeed quite angry and they are protesting and demanding that our political systems address our issues. They are pushing back hard against the status quo systems, upset that they have been misled on many fronts. Then there are those who are bargaining hard and clinging to the idea that we can \u2018tweak\u2019 our current systems or find some \u2018solution\u2019, especially through the use of our technological prowess and resourcefulness.<\/p>\n

Then there are those few who have moved into the acceptance stage. They recognise what has happened and what will happen. They have acknowledged the inevitability that the complex systems that we rely upon are well beyond our capacity to alter, except perhaps at the margins.<\/p>\n

This is not to say those who have reached the acceptance stage have completely \u2018given up\u2019, which is an accusation often hurled by those in the earlier stages of grief\u200a\u2014\u200aand usually along with a LOT of ad hominem attacks. Indeed those who I know accept our predicament are still \u2018fighting\u2019, as it were. They are attempting to: alert\/inform others so as to not make our situation ever worse (which is exactly what technological \u2018solutions\u2019 do); pursuing marginal changes such as increasing the self-reliance\/-sufficiency of local regions by advocating relocalisation and regenerative agriculture\/permaculture, and\/or advocating degrowth; and\/or seeking solace through faith of some kind.<\/p>\n

No one, not one of us gets out of here alive. Whether some of us or our descendants make it out the other side of the bottleneck we have created for ourselves is up in the air. I wish the stories that have been weaved about \u2018renewables\u2019 and the future they could provide were true but I\u2019ve come to the realisation that the more we do to try and prolong our current energy-intensive complexities, the more we reduce the chances for any of us, including most other species (at least those that we haven\u2019t already exterminated), to have much if any of a future.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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A couple of relevant articles\/links in no particular order of importance:<\/p>\n

The Seneca Effect<\/strong>
\nA blog by Ugo Bardi\u00a0. It would be some consolation for the feebleness of our selves and our works if all things should\u2026<\/em>thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com<\/a><\/div>\n
Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity – Nature Communications<\/strong>
\nRenewable energy production is necessary to mitigate climate change, however, generating the required technologies and\u2026<\/em>www.nature.com<\/a><\/div>\n
Kevin Hester<\/strong>
\n“Changes will happen decades earlier than previously thought.” Now where have we heard that before? “More rain than\u2026<\/em>kevinhester.live<\/a><\/div>\n
Don\u2019t Make Me Watch:<\/strong>
\nThe new climate film celebrates malpractice martyrdom, and enviros of all stripes are cheering it on<\/em>medium.com<\/a><\/div>\n
Problems, Predicaments, and Technology<\/strong>
\nRecently, I have come across literally hundreds of people defending EVs, their batteries, and electricity generation of\u2026<\/em>problemspredicamentsandtechnology.blogspot.com<\/a><\/div>\n
Through the Eye of a Needle: An Eco-Heterodox Perspective on the Renewable Energy Transition<\/strong>
\nWe add to the emerging body of literature highlighting cracks in the foundation of the mainstream energy transition\u2026<\/em>www.mdpi.com<\/a><\/div>\n
Damn the Matrix<\/strong>
\nOr why the world is going to hell<\/em>damnthematrix.wordpress.com<\/a><\/div>\n
Net zero policies are ’emperor’s new clothes,’ academics warn<\/strong>
\nNet zero targets are a “fantasy” that often just protect “business as usual,” a leading expert in environment and\u2026<\/em>phys.org<\/a><\/div>\n
Surplus Energy Economics<\/strong>
\nThe home of the SEEDS economic model – Tim Morgan<\/em>surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com<\/a><\/div>\n
Mining for renewable energy could be another threat to the environment<\/strong>
\nResearchers have warned that mining threats to biodiversity caused by renewable energy production could surpass those\u2026<\/em>phys.org<\/a><\/div>\n
Peak Energy & Resources, Climate Change, and the Preservation of Knowledge<\/strong>
\nPreface. It’s strange that we’re on the cusp of Peak Oil, and yet the only existential threat you ever hear about is\u2026<\/em>energyskeptic.com<\/a><\/div>\n
Study casts doubt on carbon capture | Stanford News<\/strong>
\nOne proposed method for reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) levels in the atmosphere – and reducing the risk of climate\u2026<\/em>news.stanford.edu<\/a><\/div>\n
Do the Math<\/strong>
\nI just watched Don’t Look Up! on Netflix. While the movie has a number of flaws, on the whole I recommend it for the\u2026<\/em>dothemath.ucsd.edu<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today\u2019s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh\u00a0XXXVIII January 25, 2022 Tulum, Mexico (1986) Photo by\u00a0author The ‘Predicament’ of Ecological Overshoot The following contemplation has been prompted by some commentary regarding a recent article by Megan Seibert of the Real Green New Deal Project. It pulls together a couple of threads that I\u2019ve been discussing the past few months\u2026 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3,4,5,6,7],"tags":[150,30371,22093,20862,31568,34046,5833,30370,33947],"class_list":["post-66363","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","category-environment","category-geopolitics","category-liberty","category-survival-2","tag-collapse","tag-collapse-cometh","tag-ecological-overshoot","tag-megan-seibert","tag-predicament","tag-real-green-new-deal-project","tag-steve-bull","tag-todays-contemplation","tag-todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66363","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=66363"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66363\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66366,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66363\/revisions\/66366"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=66363"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=66363"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=66363"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}