{"id":66302,"date":"2023-12-03T08:17:22","date_gmt":"2023-12-03T13:17:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=66302"},"modified":"2023-12-03T08:17:22","modified_gmt":"2023-12-03T13:17:22","slug":"insanity-celebrating-rate-cuts-at-a-shiller-pe-of-31x","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=66302","title":{"rendered":"Insanity: Celebrating Rate Cuts At A Shiller PE Of 31x"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Insanity: Celebrating Rate Cuts At A Shiller PE Of 31x<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n
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Last week ended the way all weeks have been ending: with the stock market raging higher based on future expectations of rate cuts that (1) have not happened yet (2) probably won\u2019t happen until next year, unless a market crash happens first and (3) won\u2019t\u00a0make their way through the economy\u00a0<\/em>for another 18 to 24 months.<\/p>\n

But nonetheless, the S&P is looking to finish the year nearing astronomical 20% gains, something that I would have thought to have been impossible with rates raging higher over the last 2 years. But, then again, remember as I wrote in September \u2014 rate\u00a0cuts\u00a0<\/em>are usually the signal for the market to crash \u2014 not rate hikes:\u00a0Fed Rate Cuts Should Scare The Shit Out Of You<\/a><\/p>\n

Is that something I wish I had understood better heading into the last few years? Absolutely. Have I taken an ass whooping\u00a0betting on volatility and being mostly net short<\/a>? Absolutely. Does that mean I\u2019m going to be deadass wrong again in 2024?<\/p>\n

Not necessarily.<\/p>\n

After all, look at gold. As I\u2019ve noted, gold is one of the very few names I\u2019d consider ever being \u201call in\u201d. And, as I have written about extensively, I find the setup for the precious metal heading into 2024 to be outstanding. I\u2019ve been harping on this since the inception of this blog and it took until this week<\/strong>\u00a0for gold to hit new all time highs:\u00a0The Fed Can’t, And Won’t, Nail The Dismount<\/a><\/p>\n

So let\u2019s just hope it isn\u2019t my analysis that\u2019s wrong, but rather, just my timing.<\/p>\n

Anyway I took the time this week to offer up my updated thoughts on Elon Musk and Tesla, after both Musk\u2019s outburst at the DealBook conference and Tesla\u2019s Cybertruck reveal. I explain my thoughts and continued stance on Tesla here:\u00a0Elon Musk And Dark Forces<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Insanity: Celebrating Rate Cuts At A Shiller PE Of 31x Last week ended the way all weeks have been ending: with the stock market raging higher based on future expectations of rate cuts that (1) have not happened yet (2) probably won\u2019t happen until next year, unless a market crash happens first and (3) won\u2019t\u00a0make […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[124,32068,431,534,20223,2443],"class_list":["post-66302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-central-banks","tag-fringe-finance","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-quoth-the-raven","tag-stock-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=66302"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66302\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66303,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66302\/revisions\/66303"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=66302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=66302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=66302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}