{"id":66125,"date":"2023-11-12T15:12:49","date_gmt":"2023-11-12T20:12:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=66125"},"modified":"2023-11-12T15:12:49","modified_gmt":"2023-11-12T20:12:49","slug":"the-polycrisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=66125","title":{"rendered":"The Polycrisis"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"The<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The Polycrisis<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n
\n

Back in 2017 when I composed this graphic of overlapping crises, the word\u00a0polycrisis<\/i>\u00a0was not yet in common use.\u00a0Polycrisis<\/i>\u00a0has various definitions, for example: \u201cthe simultaneous occurrence of several catastrophic events.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"image<\/p>\n

But this doesn\u2019t explain the truly dangerous dynamic in polycrisis, which is the nonlinear,\u00a0mutually reinforcing<\/i>\u00a0potential of disparate crises to generate effects much larger than the initial causes. This definition is closer to the mark: \u201cMany different problems happening at the same time so that they together have a very big effect.\u201d<\/p>\n

Put another way: 1 + 1 + 1 doesn\u2019t generate an effect of 3, it generates an effect of 9.<\/p>\n

You\u2019ll notice the crises on my graphic are\u00a0internal<\/i>\u00a0socioeconomic dynamics: state-cartel centralization, demographics, soaring debts, Imperial overreach, technological disruption, disunity in elites and diminishing returns on financial predation.<\/p>\n

Many don\u2019t see these as crises; they\u2019re seen as factors, not as potentially catastrophic dynamics. This is the linear analysis: None of these dynamics is actually threatening to the stability of the U.S.<\/p>\n

The nonlinear analysis is: Considering each one as a discrete dynamic, that\u2019s true. But these are\u00a0mutually reinforcing crises<\/i>\u00a0because\u00a0the status quo \u201csolutions\u201d to each one become mutually reinforcing problems<\/i>\u00a0which generate much larger effects than most believe possible.<\/p>\n

Note that external factors such as war and climate change are not shown. These conditions are not entirely controllable by U.S. policy decisions. They affect the entire world, not just one nation-state. That said, external crises add additional nonlinear influences to the polycrisis.<\/p>\n

Polycrisis and Supply and Demand<\/strong><\/p>\n

The human mind is not particularly well-adapted to\u00a0polycrisis<\/i>: We struggle to adapt to the drought, then the earthquake knocks down the village walls, then the tsunami pounds what was left, followed by the epic flooding, then the hurricane batters the survivors, who witness the volcano erupting and wonder what they did to anger the gods and goddesses so mightily.<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Polycrisis Back in 2017 when I composed this graphic of overlapping crises, the word\u00a0polycrisis\u00a0was not yet in common use.\u00a0Polycrisis\u00a0has various definitions, for example: \u201cthe simultaneous occurrence of several catastrophic events.\u201d   But this doesn\u2019t explain the truly dangerous dynamic in polycrisis, which is the nonlinear,\u00a0mutually reinforcing\u00a0potential of disparate crises to generate effects much larger […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[24078,33809,21387],"class_list":["post-66125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-geopolitics","tag-charles-hugh-smith-2","tag-polycrisis","tag-the-daily-reckoning"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66125","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=66125"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66125\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66126,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66125\/revisions\/66126"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=66125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=66125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=66125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}