{"id":6602,"date":"2015-03-18T07:10:20","date_gmt":"2015-03-18T12:10:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=6602"},"modified":"2015-03-18T07:10:20","modified_gmt":"2015-03-18T12:10:20","slug":"economy-finally-reaches-escape-velocity-heads-south","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=6602","title":{"rendered":"Economy Finally Reaches \u201cEscape Velocity,\u201d Heads South"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2015\/03\/17\/gdpnow-nowcast-drops-to-near-zero-escape-velocity-investment-structures-oil-drilling-rigs\/\" target=\"_blank\">Economy Finally Reaches \u201cEscape Velocity,\u201d Heads South<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>It\u2019s hard to measure the growth rate of a vast, complex economy with just one number, accurately, and on a timely basis.<\/p>\n<p>The Chinese found an ingenious\u00a0solution. They\u00a0<em>decree<\/em>\u00a0the growth rate and announce it in advance, and that\u2019s about what the number says when it comes out. It\u2019s faster than any other major country can produce its GDP numbers. It avoids nasty surprises and doesn\u2019t need messy revisions. Whether or not establishing statistical data by decree is an accurate reflection of reality is a hotly disputed topic.<\/p>\n<p>But then, the accuracy of any statistical data is a hotly disputed topic.<\/p>\n<p>In the US, it\u2019s a slog to get to the final answer. Quarterly changes in GDP, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, come in a series of estimates. The first estimate gets all the press, but subsequent revisions in the second and third estimates can be significant. Further revisions follow over the years. By the time the BEA has a fairly good handle on what actually happened back in the day, no one cares anymore.<\/p>\n<p>So the Atlanta Fed started a new approach in 2011. The forecasting model is supposed to reflect a more immediate picture of the economy. Taking into account economic data when it is released, the model adjusts its GDP forecast accordingly and closer to real time. It has plenty of quirks. It\u2019s jumpy as it reacts to incoming monthly data that is itself highly volatile and subject to revision. But it\u2019s a good indication of where the economy has been going over the past few months.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Economy Finally Reaches \u201cEscape Velocity,\u201d Heads South It\u2019s hard to measure the growth rate of a vast, complex economy with just one number, accurately, and on a timely basis. The Chinese found an ingenious\u00a0solution. They\u00a0decree\u00a0the growth rate and announce it in advance, and that\u2019s about what the number says when it comes out. It\u2019s faster [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4257,2213,2214,130,190,246,4256,353,2084,4254,4255],"class_list":["post-6602","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-atlanta-fed","tag-bea","tag-bureau-of-economic-analysis","tag-china","tag-data","tag-economy","tag-escape-velocity","tag-gdp","tag-statistics","tag-wolf-richter","tag-wolfstreet"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6602","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6602"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6602\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6603,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6602\/revisions\/6603"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6602"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6602"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6602"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}