{"id":65614,"date":"2023-08-07T16:53:08","date_gmt":"2023-08-07T21:53:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=65614"},"modified":"2023-08-07T16:53:08","modified_gmt":"2023-08-07T21:53:08","slug":"the-long-wave-versus-the-printing-press","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=65614","title":{"rendered":"The Long Wave Versus the Printing Press"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Long Wave Versus the Printing Press<\/a><\/h3>\n

Winter has been coming for a very long time. Here’s why<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The fascinating thing about \u201clong wave\u201d analysis (broadly defined to include\u00a0Kondratieff waves<\/a><\/strong>,\u00a0\u00a0Elliott waves,<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0and William Strauss and Neil Howe\u2019s\u00a0Fourth Turning<\/a><\/strong>) is that while each theory uses its own indicators and terminology to show how societies move through recurring cultural\/psychological\/financial stages, they\u2019ve all reached the same conclusion: we\u2019re toast.<\/p>\n

The first decade of this century marked the theoretical end of an Elliott Wave Grand Supercycle \u2014 and of an even bigger wave that began in the Dark Ages\u2026<\/p>\n

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\u2026the start of Kondratiff winter\u2026<\/p>\n

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\u2026and the beginning of a\u00a0Fourth \u201cCrisis\u201d Turning<\/a>. As Strauss and Howe put it in 1997:<\/p>\n

Around the year 2005 [give or take a few years], a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood.\u00a0 Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate.\u00a0Political and economic trust will implode.\u00a0 Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire.\u2026Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II\u2026.The risk of catastrophe will be very high.\u00a0The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule.\u00a0If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort \u2013 in other words,\u00a0total war<\/em>\u2026<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

But a funny thing happened on the way to the Greater Depression: We\u2019ve somehow kept it together, inflating the 2000s housing bubble and, when that burst, replacing it with the everything bubble. Policymakers, talking heads, and most investors (judging by the past year\u2019s stock market action) seem to think that a normal recovery is underway and that a crash remains a low-probability event.<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Long Wave Versus the Printing Press Winter has been coming for a very long time. Here’s why The fascinating thing about \u201clong wave\u201d analysis (broadly defined to include\u00a0Kondratieff waves,\u00a0\u00a0Elliott waves,\u00a0and William Strauss and Neil Howe\u2019s\u00a0Fourth Turning) is that while each theory uses its own indicators and terminology to show how societies move through recurring […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[329,9529,7544,1430,536,538],"class_list":["post-65614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-fourth-turning","tag-historical-cycles","tag-john-rubino","tag-kondratieff-waves","tag-money","tag-money-printing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65614","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=65614"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65614\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":65615,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65614\/revisions\/65615"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=65614"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=65614"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=65614"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}