{"id":64820,"date":"2023-01-22T07:58:43","date_gmt":"2023-01-22T12:58:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=64820"},"modified":"2023-01-22T07:58:43","modified_gmt":"2023-01-22T12:58:43","slug":"the-dangerous-fantasy-of-scotlands-net-zero-energy-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=64820","title":{"rendered":"The Dangerous Fantasy of Scotland\u2019s Net Zero Energy Transition"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Dangerous Fantasy of Scotland\u2019s Net Zero Energy Transition<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
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Suppose that Scotland\u2019s CO2<\/sub>\u00a0emissions fell tomorrow to zero, i.e., that, at midnight, the country ceased to exist. Then according to the\u00a0\u201cModel for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change<\/a>\u201d\u00a0(MAGICC), based on the latest IPCC climate models, the reduction in the Earth\u2019s temperature in 2100 would be\u2026undetectable.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Motivated by the moral necessity and urgency of this goal, the Scottish Government is proposing a novel energy policy \u2013 its\u00a0\u201cEnergy Strategy and Just Transition Plan<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n

This article reviews its major themes and their implications, and considers briefly the probability of success of the Scottish Government implementing it.<\/p>\n

In 2022, due to an insufficient quantity of wind and sun, Scotland\u2019s current collection of wind and solar energy-scavenging devices\u00a0failed to generate<\/a>\u00a0about 70% of their nameplate capacity. Recent exhaustive\u00a0statistical and econometric analysis<\/a>\u00a0of wind generation in Scotland by Edinburgh University shows that it is uneconomic and destined for taxpayer bailout.\u00a0Under the Scottish Government\u2019s novel energy strategy, wind and solar energy-scavenging devices are to be greatly expanded.<\/p>\n

Hydrogen, an energy carrier that squanders in waste-heat a gigawatt of power generation for every gigawatt it carries, is elevated in the Scottish Government\u2019s understanding of energy to the category of a fuel, and also greatly expanded.<\/p>\n

Hydrocarbon and nuclear \u2013 actual fuels \u2013 provide the energy to manufacture and endlessly replace wind turbines and solar panels. They also, in Scotland, provide the power sources that run under all conditions to ensure continuity of energy supply during Scotland\u2019s frequent sunless and windless conditions. These are to be discontinued.<\/p>\n

Like all advanced economies, Scotland cannot tolerate even a small measure of power supply fluctuation. Without firm dispatchable thermal standby generation capacity to smooth supply fluctuation, the eventual daily around 40GW amplitude power fluctuation resulting from the proposed expansion of weather-dependent electrical generation must be adapted for use in some other way…<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Dangerous Fantasy of Scotland\u2019s Net Zero Energy Transition Suppose that Scotland\u2019s CO2\u00a0emissions fell tomorrow to zero, i.e., that, at midnight, the country ceased to exist. Then according to the\u00a0\u201cModel for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change\u201d\u00a0(MAGICC), based on the latest IPCC climate models, the reduction in the Earth\u2019s temperature in 2100 would […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[5930,30673,15442,33605,706,33604],"class_list":["post-64820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-energy-transition","tag-net-zero","tag-renewables","tag-richard-lyon","tag-scotland","tag-the-daily-sceptic"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=64820"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64820\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64821,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64820\/revisions\/64821"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=64820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=64820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=64820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}