{"id":64713,"date":"2023-01-13T18:24:15","date_gmt":"2023-01-13T23:24:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=64713"},"modified":"2023-01-13T18:24:15","modified_gmt":"2023-01-13T23:24:15","slug":"two-different-perspectives-same-conclusion-modern-lifestyles-will-end-soon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=64713","title":{"rendered":"Two Different Perspectives \u2013 Same Conclusion: Modern Lifestyles Will End\u00a0Soon"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Two Different Perspectives \u2013 Same Conclusion: Modern Lifestyles Will End\u00a0Soon<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n
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Dr. Berndt Warm\u2019s Perspective<\/strong><\/p>\n

Thanks to\u00a0Marromai<\/a>\u00a0for finding this\u00a0new paper<\/a>\u00a0by physicist Dr. Berndt Warm.<\/p>\n

Dr. Warm uses 5 different methods, 4 relying on economics, and 1 on thermodynamics, to predict when the end of oil production and motor vehicle production will occur. All 5 methods roughly converge on 2030 as the year when modern lifestyles end.<\/p>\n

The essay was written in German and translated to English which explains any awkward phrasing.<\/p>\n

Warm\u2019s conclusion agrees with my 15 years of study of many different sources which converge on oil production being down by about 50% in 2030. Because our current system requires growth not to collapse, it is plausible that predicting a 50% decline is the same as predicting a 100% decline.<\/p>\n

Our world is of course far too complex to make precise predictions, and unexpected events like a pandemic or nuclear war can dramatically change the outcome, however for planning purposes it seems reasonable to assume we have about 5 years left to prepare for a new way of life.<\/p>\n

Abstract<\/p>\n

Evaluation of five data sets concerning car production, oil prices converted in energy values gives lifespan approximations for the car industry and the oil industry. The result is that the car industry will last only until 2027 and the oil industry some years more.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

<\/object><\/a><\/div>\n
Berndt Warm \u2013 Calculations on the Lifespan of Vehicle Production and Petroleum Production \u2013 11-Sep-2022<\/a>DOWNLOAD<\/a><\/div>\n

Here are a few excerpts from the paper:<\/p>\n

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The author interprets the line of maxima as the oil price that the industrialized countries can afford to the maximum while maintaining their lifestyle. He interprets the line of minima as the price of oil that the producing countries need to keep their economies running. In mid-2019, the author noticed this crossroads and expected a crisis in 2020, although he was completely unclear what kind of crisis it would be. He didn\u2019t expect Corona.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Two Different Perspectives \u2013 Same Conclusion: Modern Lifestyles Will End\u00a0Soon   Dr. Berndt Warm\u2019s Perspective Thanks to\u00a0Marromai\u00a0for finding this\u00a0new paper\u00a0by physicist Dr. Berndt Warm. Dr. Warm uses 5 different methods, 4 relying on economics, and 1 on thermodynamics, to predict when the end of oil production and motor vehicle production will occur. All 5 methods […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[150,33573,5427,30702],"class_list":["post-64713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-collapse","tag-dr-berndt-warm","tag-industrial-civilisation","tag-un-denial"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64713","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=64713"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64713\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64714,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64713\/revisions\/64714"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=64713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=64713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=64713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}