{"id":64047,"date":"2022-11-07T10:23:31","date_gmt":"2022-11-07T15:23:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=64047"},"modified":"2022-11-07T10:23:31","modified_gmt":"2022-11-07T15:23:31","slug":"energys-role-in-economic-production-is-severely-underestimated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=64047","title":{"rendered":"Energy&#8217;s role in economic production is severely underestimated!"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"post-header\">\n<h3 class=\"post-title unpublished\"><a href=\"https:\/\/energyandresilience.substack.com\/p\/energys-role-in-economic-production?r=1iv5md&amp;utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=email\">Energy&#8217;s role in economic production is severely underestimated!<\/a><\/h3>\n<p class=\"subtitle\"><strong>Another brilliant exposition by Prof Steve Keen. The wording below is from a LinkedIn post I made tonight, targeted to Megan Woods (NZ Energy Minister) and Tina Schirr (BEC Lead)<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"post-subheader meta-subheader\">\n<div class=\"left\">\n<div class=\"label-stack\">\n<div class=\"bylines\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"\">\n<div class=\"available-content\">\n<div class=\"body markup\" dir=\"auto\">\n<p>I posted the following to LinkedIn tonight, here\u2019s the link to the OP:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/posts\/nathansurendran_friede-gard-prize-lecture-05-energy-in-production-activity-6994962828289851392-oU7s\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/posts\/nathansurendran_friede-gard-prize-lecture-05-energy-in-production-activity-6994962828289851392-oU7s<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Friede Gard Prize Lecture 05 Energy In Production Functions &#8211; Both Neoclassical and Post Keynesian economic models have been &#8220;energy blind&#8221;, as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/ACoAAAFZFxcBzZXOZ0eGnxHfflTkD9UiIueXp3U\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">Dr. Steve Keen<\/a>\u00a0outlines in this 23 minute talk:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/lnkd.in\/gmCn6hzA\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">https:\/\/lnkd.in\/gmCn6hzA<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe79c6a69-3542-4113-a3b6-ab6175f6f29d_1314x715.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe79c6a69-3542-4113-a3b6-ab6175f6f29d_1314x715.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe79c6a69-3542-4113-a3b6-ab6175f6f29d_1314x715.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe79c6a69-3542-4113-a3b6-ab6175f6f29d_1314x715.png 1456w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"100vw\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe79c6a69-3542-4113-a3b6-ab6175f6f29d_1314x715.png\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe79c6a69-3542-4113-a3b6-ab6175f6f29d_1314x715.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe79c6a69-3542-4113-a3b6-ab6175f6f29d_1314x715.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe79c6a69-3542-4113-a3b6-ab6175f6f29d_1314x715.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe79c6a69-3542-4113-a3b6-ab6175f6f29d_1314x715.png 1456w\" alt=\"\" width=\"1314\" height=\"715\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/e79c6a69-3542-4113-a3b6-ab6175f6f29d_1314x715.png&quot;,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:715,&quot;width&quot;:1314,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null}\" \/><\/picture>\n<div class=\"image-link-expand\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><em>(- I\u2019ll update this post with an embed of this video, once it\u2019s available on YouTube.)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/ACoAAACkX4YBN0D3eaP0cG3c_oA9jOGG1VMW9Tg\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">Megan Woods<\/a>\u00a0&#8211; MBIE&#8217;s modelling fails to take this reality into account, and you are getting erroneous assurances (the magnitude of risk is massively underestimated, potentially by a factor of 20 or more) on the magnitude of energy supply fluctuation risks, from the SADEM and GEM economic modelling.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/ACoAABcABqsBbAql1GlvurrLC3o18n2ms7G9Euw\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">Tina Schirr<\/a>\u00a0&#8211; this line of thinking is fundamental to getting the scenarios in your BEC Energy Scenarios to properly reveal the relative risk to business of energy supply challenges. This is of critical importance, as the current tightening global diesel supply is a huge risk to BAU and the proposed transition scenarios, which your current modelling is failing to identify.<\/p>\n<p>The fundamental risk that this points to is a cascading failure of the financial system, as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/feasta\/\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">FEASTA<\/a>\u00a0analysed in this report:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/trdoff\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">bit.ly\/trdoff<\/a>. This could easily be triggered by energy supply disruptions, as explored in this article:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/lnkd.in\/gtbPP8im\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">https:\/\/lnkd.in\/gtbPP8im<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/hashtag\/?keywords=energy&amp;highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A6994962828289851392\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">#energy<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/hashtag\/?keywords=business&amp;highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A6994962828289851392\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">#business<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/hashtag\/?keywords=energytransition&amp;highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A6994962828289851392\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">#energytransition<\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/hashtag\/?keywords=biophysicaleconomics&amp;highlightedUpdateUrns=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A6994962828289851392\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">#biophysicaleconomics<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"subscription-widget-wrap\">\n<div class=\"subscription-widget show-subscribe\">\n<div class=\"preamble\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Energy&#8217;s role in economic production is severely underestimated! Another brilliant exposition by Prof Steve Keen. The wording below is from a LinkedIn post I made tonight, targeted to Megan Woods (NZ Energy Minister) and Tina Schirr (BEC Lead) I posted the following to LinkedIn tonight, here\u2019s the link to the OP:\u00a0https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/posts\/nathansurendran_friede-gard-prize-lecture-05-energy-in-production-activity-6994962828289851392-oU7s Friede Gard Prize Lecture [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[33360,750],"class_list":["post-64047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-nathan-surendran","tag-steve-keen"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=64047"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64047\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64048,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64047\/revisions\/64048"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=64047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=64047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=64047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}