{"id":63319,"date":"2022-08-17T05:56:31","date_gmt":"2022-08-17T10:56:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=63319"},"modified":"2022-08-17T05:56:31","modified_gmt":"2022-08-17T10:56:31","slug":"global-food-insecurity-and-famine-from-reduced-crop-marine-fishery-and-livestock-production-due-to-climate-disruption-from-nuclear-war-soot-injection","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=63319","title":{"rendered":"Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"c-article-header\">\n<header>\n<h3 class=\"c-article-title\" data-test=\"article-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43016-022-00573-0\">Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"c-article-metrics-bar__wrapper u-clear-both\"><\/div>\n<\/header>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"c-article-body\">\n<section lang=\"en\" aria-labelledby=\"Abs1\" data-title=\"Abstract\" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-50443292_563=\"1150\" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-50443292_563=\"10000\" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-50443292_562=\"1150\" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-50443292_562=\"10000\" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-50443292_563=\"1\" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-50443292_562=\"1\">\n<div id=\"Abs1-section\" class=\"c-article-section\">\n<p id=\"Abs1\" class=\"c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item\"><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"Abs1-content\" class=\"c-article-section__content\">\n<p>Atmospheric soot loadings from nuclear weapon detonation would cause disruptions to the Earth\u2019s climate, limiting terrestrial and aquatic food production. Here, we use climate, crop and fishery models to estimate the impacts arising from six scenarios of stratospheric soot injection, predicting the total food calories available in each nation post-war after stored food is consumed. In quantifying impacts away from target areas, we demonstrate that soot injections larger than 5\u2009Tg would lead to mass food shortages, and livestock and aquatic food production would be unable to compensate for reduced crop output, in almost all countries. Adaptation measures such as food waste reduction would have limited impact on increasing available calories. We estimate more than 2\u2009billion people could die from nuclear war between India and Pakistan, and more than 5\u2009billion could die from a war between the United States and Russia\u2014underlining the importance of global cooperation in preventing nuclear war.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<section data-title=\"Main\" data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen-50443292_563=\"1150\" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-50443292_563=\"1150\" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-50443292_563=\"10000\" data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen-50443292_562=\"1151\" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-50443292_562=\"1151\" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-50443292_562=\"10000\" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-50443292_563=\"1\" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-50443292_562=\"1\">\n<div id=\"Sec1-section\" class=\"c-article-section\">\n<p id=\"Sec1\" class=\"c-article-section__title js-section-title js-c-reading-companion-sections-item\"><strong>Main<\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"Sec1-content\" class=\"c-article-section__content\">\n<p>Extraordinary events such as large volcanic eruptions or nuclear war could cause sudden global climate disruptions and affect food security. Global volcanic cooling caused by sulfuric acid aerosols in the stratosphere has resulted in severe famines and political instability, for example, after the 1783 Laki eruption in Iceland<sup><a id=\"ref-link-section-d2587638e653\" title=\"Oman, L., Robock, A., Stenchikov, G. L. &amp; Thordarson, T. High-latitude eruptions cast shadow over the African monsoon and the flow of the Nile. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L18711 (2006).\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43016-022-00573-0#ref-CR1\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-action=\"reference anchor\" data-track-label=\"link\" data-test=\"citation-ref\" aria-label=\"Reference 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0or the 1815 Tambora eruption in Indonesia<sup><a id=\"ref-link-section-d2587638e657\" title=\"Wood, G. D. Tambora: The Eruption That Changed The World (Princeton Univ. Press, 2014).\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43016-022-00573-0#ref-CR2\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-action=\"reference anchor\" data-track-label=\"link\" data-test=\"citation-ref\" aria-label=\"Reference 2\">2<\/a>,<a id=\"ref-link-section-d2587638e660\" title=\"Stommel, H. &amp; Stommel, E. Volcano Weather; The Story of 1816, The Year Without a Summer (Seven Seas Press, 1983).\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43016-022-00573-0#ref-CR3\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-action=\"reference anchor\" data-track-label=\"link\" data-test=\"citation-ref\" aria-label=\"Reference 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>. For a nuclear war, the global cooling would depend on the yields of the weapons, the number of weapons and the targets, among other atmospheric and geographic factors. In a nuclear war, bombs targeted on cities and industrial areas would start firestorms, injecting large amounts of soot into the upper atmosphere, which would spread globally and rapidly cool the planet<sup><a id=\"ref-link-section-d2587638e664\" title=\"Turco, R. P., Toon, O. B., Ackerman, T. P., Pollack, J. B. &amp; Sagan, C. Nuclear winter: global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions. Science 222, 1283\u20131292 (1983).\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43016-022-00573-0#ref-CR4\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-action=\"reference anchor\" data-track-label=\"link\" data-test=\"citation-ref\">4<\/a>,<a id=\"ref-link-section-d2587638e664_1\" title=\"Aleksandrov, V. V. &amp; Stenchikov, G. L. On the modeling of the climatic consequences of the nuclear war. Proc. Applied Math (Computing Centre of the USSR Academy of Sciences, 1983).\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43016-022-00573-0#ref-CR5\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-action=\"reference anchor\" data-track-label=\"link\" data-test=\"citation-ref\">5<\/a>,<a id=\"ref-link-section-d2587638e667\" title=\"Robock, A. Snow and ice feedbacks prolong effects of nuclear winter. Nature 310, 667\u2013670 (1984).\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43016-022-00573-0#ref-CR6\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-action=\"reference anchor\" data-track-label=\"link\" data-test=\"citation-ref\" aria-label=\"Reference 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>. Such soot loadings would cause decadal disruptions in Earth\u2019s climate<sup><a id=\"ref-link-section-d2587638e671\" title=\"Robock, A. et al. Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts. Atm. Chem. Phys. 7, 2003\u20132012 (2007).\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43016-022-00573-0#ref-CR7\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-action=\"reference anchor\" data-track-label=\"link\" data-test=\"citation-ref\">7<\/a>,<a id=\"ref-link-section-d2587638e671_1\" title=\"Robock, A., Oman, L. &amp; Stenchikov, G. L. Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: still catastrophic consequences. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D13107 (2007).\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43016-022-00573-0#ref-CR8\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-action=\"reference anchor\" data-track-label=\"link\" data-test=\"citation-ref\">8<\/a>,<a id=\"ref-link-section-d2587638e674\" title=\"Coupe, J., Bardeen, C. G., Robock, A. &amp; Toon, O. B. Nuclear winter responses to global nuclear war in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 124, 8522\u20138543 (2019).\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43016-022-00573-0#ref-CR9\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-action=\"reference anchor\" data-track-label=\"link\" data-test=\"citation-ref\" aria-label=\"Reference 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>, which would impact food production systems on land and in the oceans&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection Abstract Atmospheric soot loadings from nuclear weapon detonation would cause disruptions to the Earth\u2019s climate, limiting terrestrial and aquatic food production. Here, we use climate, crop and fishery models to estimate the impacts [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5,7],"tags":[3627,33097,33100,33096,17119,1912,33098,33099,33095,33094,33103,33104,581,33101,33102],"class_list":["post-63319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environment","category-geopolitics","category-survival-2","tag-alan-robock","tag-benjamin-leon-bodirsky","tag-charles-g-bardeen","tag-cheryl-s-harrison","tag-famine","tag-food-production","tag-isabelle-weindl","tag-jonas-jagermeyr","tag-kim-scherrer","tag-lili-xia","tag-nature-food","tag-nuclear-soot","tag-nuclear-war","tag-owen-b-toon","tag-ryan-heneghan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63319","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=63319"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63319\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63320,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63319\/revisions\/63320"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=63319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=63319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=63319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}