{"id":63113,"date":"2022-07-22T07:10:56","date_gmt":"2022-07-22T12:10:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=63113"},"modified":"2022-07-22T07:11:17","modified_gmt":"2022-07-22T12:11:17","slug":"235-the-affordability-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=63113","title":{"rendered":"#235. The affordability\u00a0crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"entry-header\">\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com\/2022\/07\/15\/235-the-affordability-crisis\/\">#235. The affordability\u00a0crisis<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"entry-meta\"><strong>WHAT\u2019S <em>REALLY\u00a0<\/em>HAPPENING<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>What might be called the \u2018consensus narrative of the moment\u2019 is that our near-term economic prospects depend on the ability of central banks to tame inflation without tipping the economy into a severe recession. There are numerous complications, of course, but this is the gist of the story.<\/p>\n<p>What these officials need to find, we\u2019re told, are Goldilocks interest rates (\u2018not too hot, not too cold\u2019), and all will be well if they succeed. If they err too far in one direction, inflation will run higher, and for longer, than is comfortable. If they lean too far the other way, a serious (though, by definition, a time-limited) recession will ensue.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation itself, the narrative runs, has been the product of bad luck. First came the pandemic crisis, which impaired production capacity and severed supply-chains. Before we\u2019d finished dealing with this, along came the war in Ukraine, disrupting supplies of energy, food and other commodities. There are some who add,\u00a0<em>sotto voce<\/em>, that we might have overdone pandemic-era stimulus somewhat.<\/p>\n<p>Our hardships, then, can be put down to a run of bad luck. Those in charge know what they\u2019re doing.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s conceded, in some quarters, that we might face some sort of crisis if these challenges aren\u2019t managed adroitly. This, though, shouldn\u2019t be as bad as the GFC of 2008-09, and certainly won\u2019t be existential.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re navigating choppy waters, then \u2013 not going over Niagara in a barrel.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The affordability reality<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There is some truth in each of these propositions, but explanation in none.<\/p>\n<p>What we\u2019re really encountering now is an\u00a0<strong>affordability crisis<\/strong>. The aim here is to explain this, without going into too much detail, and with data confined to two sets of SEEDS-derived charts at the end of this discussion.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>#235. The affordability\u00a0crisis WHAT\u2019S REALLY\u00a0HAPPENING What might be called the \u2018consensus narrative of the moment\u2019 is that our near-term economic prospects depend on the ability of central banks to tame inflation without tipping the economy into a severe recession. There are numerous complications, of course, but this is the gist of the story. What these [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[4059,124,426,431,534,13351,3237,31315,31314],"class_list":["post-63113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-affordability","tag-central-banks","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-price-inflation","tag-supply-chains","tag-surplus-energy-economics","tag-tim-morgan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63113","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=63113"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63113\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63114,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63113\/revisions\/63114"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=63113"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=63113"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=63113"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}