{"id":62950,"date":"2022-06-22T09:14:31","date_gmt":"2022-06-22T14:14:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=62950"},"modified":"2022-06-22T09:14:31","modified_gmt":"2022-06-22T14:14:31","slug":"rabobank-its-a-depressing-idea-to-admit-we-have-no-ideas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=62950","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank: It’s A Depressing Idea To Admit We Have No Ideas"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Rabobank: It’s A Depressing Idea To Admit We Have No Ideas<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n
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It is said that small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, and great minds talk about ideas – and I would add\u00a0the smallest of minds talk about themselves.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The smallest-minded market view is what your individual asset class did yesterday. For example, I see across Bloomberg that \u2018equities went up\u2019, \u2018bond yields went up\u2019, and \u2018oil went up\u2019. No joined-up thinking as to what this means jointly.<\/p>\n

The small-minded market view is\u00a0President Biden telling the CEO of Chevron he was “mildly sensitive” for pointing out to the government how the energy market actually works, as oil rises again<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The average-minded market view is that the White House may cut gasoline taxes for 4 July.\u00a0Yet even an average market mind should also be able to see this would be bad economics because it won\u2019t help\u00a0supply<\/em>, while boosting\u00a0demand<\/em>.\u00a0<\/strong>But careful now, that\u2019s an idea!<\/p>\n

The great-minded market view it is to accept what this Daily –and many others– have stressed repeatedly: that to raise rates means huge pain (and I add: and US geopolitical gain); and to cut rates means huge pain (and I add: and US geopolitical loss). There are no good choices.\u00a0So, cheering equities going up while bond yields and energy also do makes no sense.<\/strong><\/p>\n

However, as Tom Hardy says to Leonardo DiCaprio in \u2018Inception\u2019, \u201cDream a little bigger, darling<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n

I recently underlined that central banks have *never* been in real control of inflation. Their inflation-fighting success –or \u2018over-success\u2019 pre-Covid, when inflation was \u201ctoo low\u201d– was *always* reflected the local and global political-economic environments, neither of which they set. One can go back over history to show that fact very simply with a long-run CPI chart for the UK, transposing different local and global backdrops on top.<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rabobank: It’s A Depressing Idea To Admit We Have No Ideas It is said that small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, and great minds talk about ideas – and I would add\u00a0the smallest of minds talk about themselves. The smallest-minded market view is what your individual asset class did yesterday. For […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[124,1055,172,24135,13351,24136,4318],"class_list":["post-62950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-central-banks","tag-consumer-price-index","tag-cpi","tag-michael-every","tag-price-inflation","tag-rabobank","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=62950"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62950\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62951,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62950\/revisions\/62951"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=62950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=62950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=62950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}