{"id":62429,"date":"2022-04-12T07:34:36","date_gmt":"2022-04-12T12:34:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=62429"},"modified":"2022-04-12T07:34:36","modified_gmt":"2022-04-12T12:34:36","slug":"will-the-bullwhip-do-the-feds-job-on-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=62429","title":{"rendered":"Will the bullwhip do the Fed\u2019s job on inflation?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Will the bullwhip do the Fed\u2019s job on inflation?<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n
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\"Industrial
\u00a0With inventories building and supply chain bottlenecks easing, is deflation next?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The only thing surprising about the freight market slowdown is the speed at which it\u2019s unfolding. The supply chain \u201cbullwhip effect\u201d is both predictable and expected. The surge of inventories and declining freight costs\/capacity imbalances will be deflationary.<\/p>\n

The trucking market has slowed. Demand for trucks usually surges during the Spring, but this year, demand for truckload freight has broken out of this typical seasonal pattern.<\/p>\n

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Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) is an index which measures the volume of truckload order requests in the contract truckload market. The OTVI chart shows year over year activity from 2018 to this year.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

The bullwhip effect is something every supply chain 101 student learns about \u2013 the idea that upstream providers overproduce in reaction to a one-time demand shock.<\/p>\n

What is the bullwhip effect?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

According\u00a0<\/a>to the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, the bullwhip effect \u201cis defined as the demand distortion that travels upstream in the supply chain from the retailer through to the wholesaler and manufacturer due to the variance of orders which may be larger than that of sales.\u201d<\/p>\n

The best way to think of this in terms of COVID is that in the early part of the cycle, the Federal Reserve was pouring trillions of dollars into the economy to ensure that the market didn\u2019t collapse. Consumers went out and spent all of that money on physical goods. At the same time, production in China and the U.S. was shut down or limited. The combination \u2013 stimulating consumption but limiting production \u2013 caused the American consumer to burn through almost all inventory.<\/p>\n

Retailers ordered more goods based on the inflated demand at that time. Upstream to them, wholesalers and manufacturers did the same. Along that chain some even ordered bumper stock.<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Will the bullwhip do the Fed\u2019s job on inflation? \u00a0With inventories building and supply chain bottlenecks easing, is deflation next? The only thing surprising about the freight market slowdown is the speed at which it\u2019s unfolding. The supply chain \u201cbullwhip effect\u201d is both predictable and expected. The surge of inventories and declining freight costs\/capacity imbalances […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[32696,202,303,31864,13351,4856,32830,3237,3650],"class_list":["post-62429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-craig-fuller","tag-deflation","tag-fed","tag-freightwaves","tag-price-inflation","tag-shipping","tag-supply-chain-bottleneck","tag-supply-chains","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62429","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=62429"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62429\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62430,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62429\/revisions\/62430"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=62429"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=62429"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=62429"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}