{"id":62066,"date":"2022-03-01T18:44:29","date_gmt":"2022-03-01T23:44:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=62066"},"modified":"2022-03-01T18:44:29","modified_gmt":"2022-03-01T23:44:29","slug":"opinion-energy-disruptions-are-now-inevitable-and-most-likely-imminent-here-are-all-the-ways-that-could-happen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=62066","title":{"rendered":"Opinion:\u00a0Energy disruptions are now inevitable and most likely imminent \u2014 here are all the ways that could happen"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"column column--full article__header\">\n<div class=\"article__masthead\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"article header\">\n<h3 class=\"article__headline\"><span class=\" label label--opinion\">Opinion:\u00a0<\/span>Energy disruptions are now inevitable and most likely imminent \u2014 here are all the ways that could happen<\/h3>\n<p><time class=\"timestamp timestamp--pub\"><\/time><\/p>\n<p class=\"article__subhead\"><strong>Pick your poison, but the end result is the same: Russian oil and natural gas will fall offline<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article__figure\">\n<div class=\"article__inset-wrapper--lead js-lead-image\">\n<div class=\"\n      media-object\n      type-InsetMediaIllustration\n        inline\n  article__inset\n      article__inset--type-InsetMediaIllustration\n        article__inset--inline\n    article__inset--lead\n  \" data-layout=\"inline\n            \" data-layout-mobile=\"\"><\/p>\n<figure class=\"\n        media-object-image\n        enlarge-image\n        img-header\n        article__inset__image\n      \"><\/p>\n<div class=\"image-container  responsive-media article__inset__image__image\" data-subtype=\"photo\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-495311?width=700&amp;height=525\" sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) 100vw, (max-width: 979px) 620px, (max-width: 1299px) 540px, 700px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-495311?width=540&amp;size=1.3333333333333333 540w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-495311?width=620&amp;size=1.3333333333333333 620w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-495311?width=639&amp;size=1.3333333333333333 639w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-495311?width=700&amp;size=1.3333333333333333 700w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-495311?width=700&amp;size=1.3333333333333333&amp;pixel_ratio=1.5 1050w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-495311?width=700&amp;size=1.3333333333333333&amp;pixel_ratio=2 1400w, https:\/\/images.mktw.net\/im-495311?width=700&amp;size=1.3333333333333333&amp;pixel_ratio=3 2100w\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div><figcaption class=\"wsj-article-caption article__inset__image__caption\">\n<p class=\"wsj-article-caption-content\">Will the lights go out?<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><i class=\"icon--\"><\/i><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"column column--full article__content\">\n<div id=\"js-article__body\" class=\"article__body article-wrap at16-col16 barrons-article-wrap\" role=\"document\" data-sbid=\"WP-MKTW-0000650516\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"barrons-article-ad sticky_item\" data-track=\"barrons-article-ad-wrap\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>More has gone horribly, horribly wrong in European-Russian affairs in the last week than in the 25 years I\u2019ve been following them. It\u2019s\u2026impossible to sugar coat this. Energy breakdowns are inevitable, and most likely imminent.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"articleList\">\n<li>Energy shortages could be accidental. Over the weekend, Russian artillery accidentally (?!) struck one of the Chernobyl hazardous material storage facilities. Oil and natural gas pipes, pumps and depots are\u00a0<em>not<\/em>\u00a0hardened.<\/li>\n<li>Breakdowns could be intentional, with Moscow brandishing its energy power like a cudgel as it has done to great effect at so many points these past two decades.<\/li>\n<li>Sanctions could trigger a payments failure;\u00a0<a class=\"icon none\" href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/us-treasury-says-its-prohibiting-transactions-with-russian-central-bank-2022-02-28?mod=article_inline\" rel=\"follow\">the Russian central bank is now under the broadest, deepest financial sanctions in history<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>The disruption could be due to insurance; Lloyd\u2019s of London was \u2013 rightly \u2013 spooked when Russian missiles struck non-Ukrainian vessels in the Black Sea, and is likely to cancel\u00a0<em>all\u00a0<\/em>maritime insurance in the area. Oil tankers included.<\/li>\n<li>It could happen because of the Turks. Ankara has already invoked the\u00a0<a class=\"icon none\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mfa.gov.tr\/implementation-of-the-montreux-convention.en.mfa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Montreux Treaty<\/a>, enabling it to halt the sailing of vessels through the Turkish Straits. That\u2019s the route used by exports from southern Russian and northeastern Kazakh oil fields.<\/li>\n<li>The Ukrainians could blow up their own pipes. Once the Russians fully occupy Ukraine, Ukrainian partisans will savage the infrastructure the Russians depend upon, both in Ukraine and neighboring Belarus.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Pick your poison, but the end result is the same: Russian oil\u00a0<em>and<\/em>\u00a0natural gas\u00a0<em>will\u00a0<\/em>fall offline. Some 1.5 million barrels of daily oil shipments and 3 billion cubic feet of natural gas are directly in the line of fire at this very moment, with triple that at risk in-region.<\/p>\n<div class=\"paywall\">\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Opinion:\u00a0Energy disruptions are now inevitable and most likely imminent \u2014 here are all the ways that could happen Pick your poison, but the end result is the same: Russian oil and natural gas will fall offline Will the lights go out? More has gone horribly, horribly wrong in European-Russian affairs in the last week than [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1997,32692,1729,13815,694,695,821],"class_list":["post-62066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-economic-sanctions","tag-energy-disruptions","tag-oil-and-gas-industry","tag-peter-zeihan","tag-russia","tag-russian-central-bank","tag-ukraine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=62066"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62066\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62067,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62066\/revisions\/62067"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=62066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=62066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=62066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}