{"id":62057,"date":"2022-02-28T20:21:34","date_gmt":"2022-03-01T01:21:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=62057"},"modified":"2022-02-28T20:21:34","modified_gmt":"2022-03-01T01:21:34","slug":"russian-oil-production-update-nov-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=62057","title":{"rendered":"Russian oil production update Nov 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"

Russian oil production update Nov 2021<\/a><\/h3>\n
\n

\"\"
\nPic 1: Druzhba oil pipeline, refineries supplied
\nhttps:\/\/fingfx.thomsonreuters.com\/gfx\/ce\/7\/4144\/4136\/Druzhba%20IEA.png<\/a>\"\"Fig 2: Crude production peaked before Covid at around 10.6 mb\/d<\/p>\n

That this production level would be some kind of limit was known for a long time<\/p>\n

April 2008
\nThe IEA\u2019s latest medium-term outlook, published in July, points to Russia as the third largest contributor to an expected 2.6m b\/d increase in non-OPEC supply, just behind Brazil and biofuels. It said that Russia would increase its production to 10.5m b\/d in 2012, about 600,000 b\/d above last year\u2019s level.
\nhttps:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/967448f4-0b1e-11dd-8ccf-0000779fd2ac<\/a>
\n.<\/p>\n

\"\"Russian oil production might never recover to pre-coronavirus levels, the country\u2019s Energy Ministry has forecast, according to the Kommersant business paper.<\/em>
\nIn a strategy document outlining prospects for Russia\u2019s critical oil and gas industry, the government said its \u201cbase case\u201d \u2014 or most likely \u2014 scenario, is that Russia\u2019s oil production will never again hit the record levels recorded in 2019.<\/em>
\nIn the last full year before the pandemic, Russia produced 560 million tons of oil \u2014 equivalent to 11.3 million barrels a day. But output dropped for the first time in more than a decade in 2020 as Russia agreed significant production cuts with Saudi Arabia and other members of the OPEC cartel in a bid to support oil prices at the start of the pandemic \u2014 pushing production down 9% to 10.3 million barrels per day.<\/em>
\nIn the scenario labelled most probable, the Energy Ministry predicts Russia\u2019s oil output will grow over the rest of the decade \u2014 but fail to hit the record output of 2019, with production hitting a post-coronavirus peak of 11.1 million barrels a day in 2029 before decreasing to 9.4 million barrels a day by 2035<\/em>.
\nhttps:\/\/www.themoscowtimes.com\/2021\/04\/12\/russia-may-have-passed-peak-oil-output-government-a73558<\/a><\/p>\n

The Norwegian energy consultant did this analysis:
\nLack of field sanctioning drives long-term oil production decline in Russia
\nAugust 2019
\nhttps:\/\/www.rystadenergy.com\/newsevents\/news\/newsletters\/EandP\/lack-of-field-sanctioning-drives-long-term-oil-production-decline-in-russia\/<\/a>
\n.<\/p>\n

\"\"Fig 3: Rystad\u2019s projection of Russian oil production to 2030<\/p>\n

The red curve shows the impact of Covid with data from\u00a0https:\/\/minenergo.gov.ru\/en\/activity\/statistics<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Russian oil production update Nov 2021 Pic 1: Druzhba oil pipeline, refineries supplied https:\/\/fingfx.thomsonreuters.com\/gfx\/ce\/7\/4144\/4136\/Druzhba%20IEA.pngFig 2: Crude production peaked before Covid at around 10.6 mb\/d That this production level would be some kind of limit was known for a long time April 2008 The IEA\u2019s latest medium-term outlook, published in July, points to Russia as the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[6292,617,694,821],"class_list":["post-62057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-crude-oil-peak","tag-peak-oil","tag-russia","tag-ukraine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62057","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=62057"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62057\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62058,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62057\/revisions\/62058"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=62057"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=62057"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=62057"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}