{"id":62029,"date":"2022-02-26T08:24:15","date_gmt":"2022-02-26T13:24:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=62029"},"modified":"2022-02-26T08:24:15","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T13:24:15","slug":"even-the-feds-lowball-inflation-measure-goes-woosh-fodder-for-50-basis-point-rate-hike-in-march","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=62029","title":{"rendered":"Even the Fed\u2019s Lowball Inflation Measure Goes WOOSH: Fodder for 50-Basis-Point Rate Hike in March"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2022\/02\/25\/feds-lowball-inflation-measure-goes-woosh-fodder-for-50-basis-point-rate-hike-in-march\/\">Even the Fed\u2019s Lowball Inflation Measure Goes WOOSH: Fodder for 50-Basis-Point Rate Hike in March<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><strong>The most reckless Fed ever is still just watching \u2013 and fueling \u2013 the consequences of 23 months of policy errors as the Inflation Monster gets bigger and bigger.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Fed\u2019s official yardstick for inflation, the \u201ccore PCE\u201d price index, which excludes food and energy and is the lowest lowball inflation measure the US government produces and which understates actual inflation more than any other inflation measure, spiked by another 0.5% in January from December, and by 5.2% year-over-year, the worst inflation spike since April 1983, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed\u2019s official and inexplicable inflation target is 2%, as measured by this lowest lowball inflation measure. And now even this lowball measure is\u00a0<em>2.6 times<\/em>\u00a0the Fed\u2019s target:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-77814\" src=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/US-PCE-2022-02-25-core-YOY-.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 527px) 100vw, 527px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/US-PCE-2022-02-25-core-YOY-.png 527w, https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/US-PCE-2022-02-25-core-YOY--260x195.png 260w, https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/US-PCE-2022-02-25-core-YOY--160x120.png 160w, https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/US-PCE-2022-02-25-core-YOY--386x290.png 386w, https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/US-PCE-2022-02-25-core-YOY--290x218.png 290w, https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/US-PCE-2022-02-25-core-YOY--193x145.png 193w\" alt=\"\" width=\"527\" height=\"395\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But back in 1982 and 1983, inflation was on the way down; now inflation is spiking to high heaven. Back in 1982 and 1983, the Fed\u2019s policy rates were over 10%; now they\u2019re near 0%.<\/p>\n<div class=\"in-article-ad\">\n<div id=\"div-gpt-ad-1640700420715-0\" data-google-query-id=\"CP3O1b21nfYCFXwNiAkdQdkDBA\">\n<div id=\"google_ads_iframe_\/21625568658,21732244537\/IMS\/wolfstreet\/desktop\/intext_rectangle\/ros_0__container__\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"google_ads_iframe_\/21625568658,21732244537\/IMS\/wolfstreet\/desktop\/intext_rectangle\/ros_0\" tabindex=\"0\" title=\"3rd party ad content\" role=\"region\" src=\"https:\/\/f170162915c40c46992eac0ee4640da8.safeframe.googlesyndication.com\/safeframe\/1-0-38\/html\/container.html\" name=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"250\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\" data-is-safeframe=\"true\" aria-label=\"Advertisement\" data-google-container-id=\"1\" data-load-complete=\"true\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Several Fed governors have put a 50-basis-point rate hike on the table for the March meeting. Yesterday it was Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller who said that \u201ca strong case can be made for a 50-basis-point hike in March\u201d if we get hot readings for today\u2019s core PCE index, and the jobs report and CPI in early March. The first of the three conditions has now been met with panache.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn this state of the world, front-loading a 50-point hike would help convey the Committee\u2019s determination to address high inflation, about which there should be no question,\u201d he said in his\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/waller20220224a.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">speech<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The overall PCE price index, which includes food and energy, spiked by 0.6% in January from December, and by 6.1% year-over-year, the worst reading since February 1982.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Even the Fed\u2019s Lowball Inflation Measure Goes WOOSH: Fodder for 50-Basis-Point Rate Hike in March The most reckless Fed ever is still just watching \u2013 and fueling \u2013 the consequences of 23 months of policy errors as the Inflation Monster gets bigger and bigger. The Fed\u2019s official yardstick for inflation, the \u201ccore PCE\u201d price index, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[303,534,9566,538,13351,3650,4254,14182],"class_list":["post-62029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-fed","tag-monetary-policy","tag-money-expansion","tag-money-printing","tag-price-inflation","tag-us-federal-reserve","tag-wolf-richter","tag-wolftstreet"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62029","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=62029"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62029\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62030,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62029\/revisions\/62030"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=62029"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=62029"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=62029"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}