{"id":62021,"date":"2022-02-25T20:05:21","date_gmt":"2022-02-26T01:05:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=62021"},"modified":"2022-02-25T20:05:21","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T01:05:21","slug":"could-the-world-really-run-out-of-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=62021","title":{"rendered":"Could The World Really Run Out Of Oil?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Could The World Really Run Out Of Oil?<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n
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Stop staring at your gains from the energy stocks for a second here. Take a seat in a nice quiet place and ask yourself this one really simple question: if oil demand continues to grow at ~1 million b\/d for the next 8-10 years, where is the oil supply coming from to meet it?<\/p>\n

Rystad Energy, along with many others, including my friend Tracy Shuchart as well as the work of Josh Young over at Bison, show that US oil production will peak in 2023\/2024. Outside of OPEC\u2019s core members, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait, there\u2019s no spare capacity (with the exception of Iran).<\/p>\n

Part of the reason we\u2019re in this situation is because of the shale boom. If it wasn\u2019t for the Permian back in 2016, we would already be deep into an oil supply crisis. We need another Permian, and that\u2019s unlikely. Furthermore, we also know that shale as an industry never produced a profit. Those investors who got in and didn\u2019t get out in time (most) all lost their shirts. Trying to kick that dead horse back to life will require horse-sized steroids. They will come with higher oil prices, but it\u2019s not gonna happen for some time and it\u2019s not gonna solve the immediate problem.<\/p>\n

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\"oil<\/picture><\/a>Without demand destruction, this oil supply deficit is going to be hard to control, and with it, oil prices though due a pullback here and now are going higher and for longer than many think.<\/p>\n

Just look at the broader landscape in the oil market today. You can list the number of countries that can actually grow oil production on one hand:<\/p>\n