{"id":61993,"date":"2022-02-24T08:48:14","date_gmt":"2022-02-24T13:48:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=61993"},"modified":"2022-02-24T08:48:14","modified_gmt":"2022-02-24T13:48:14","slug":"most-people-have-no-idea-how-much-stocks-are-likely-to-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=61993","title":{"rendered":"Most People Have No Idea How Much Stocks are Likely to Crash"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"m-detail-header mm-detail-header--content-position-above mm-detail-header--in-content-well\">\n<div class=\"m-detail-header--container\">\n<div class=\"m-detail-header--content\">\n<h3 class=\"m-detail-header--title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/economics\/most-people-have-no-idea-how-much-socks-are-likely-to-crash\">Most People Have No Idea How Much Stocks are Likely to Crash<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"m-detail-header--dek\"><strong>Let&#8217;s discuss value investor Jeremy Grantham&#8217;s thesis on &#8220;super bubbles&#8221; and his target for the S&amp;P 500.<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"m-social mm-social--below-header\"><\/section>\n<div class=\"m-detail--body\">\n<div class=\"m-detail--body-item m-detail--body-item-inline\">\n<figure class=\"l-inline tml-image m-detail--tml-image--inline\"><a><picture class=\"is-loaded\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_380\/MTg3NjEzNzUxMTQ1NDA4Mzk5\/sp-500-jeremy-grantham-target.webp 380w, https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_620\/MTg3NjEzNzUxMTQ1NDA4Mzk5\/sp-500-jeremy-grantham-target.webp 620w, https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_700\/MTg3NjEzNzUxMTQ1NDA4Mzk5\/sp-500-jeremy-grantham-target.webp 700w, https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_837\/MTg3NjEzNzUxMTQ1NDA4Mzk5\/sp-500-jeremy-grantham-target.webp 837w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1240px) 700px, (min-width: 675px) 620px, calc(100vw - 40px)\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_380\/MTg3NjEzNzUxMTQ1NDA4Mzk5\/sp-500-jeremy-grantham-target.png 380w, https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_620\/MTg3NjEzNzUxMTQ1NDA4Mzk5\/sp-500-jeremy-grantham-target.png 620w, https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_700\/MTg3NjEzNzUxMTQ1NDA4Mzk5\/sp-500-jeremy-grantham-target.png 700w, https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_837\/MTg3NjEzNzUxMTQ1NDA4Mzk5\/sp-500-jeremy-grantham-target.png 837w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1240px) 700px, (min-width: 675px) 620px, calc(100vw - 40px)\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"m-detail--tml-image m-image\" src=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/t_share\/MTg3NjEzNzUxMTQ1NDA4Mzk5\/sp-500-jeremy-grantham-target.png\" srcset=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish with thanks to Jeremy Grantham.\" width=\"837\" height=\"572\" data-src=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_700\/MTg3NjEzNzUxMTQ1NDA4Mzk5\/sp-500-jeremy-grantham-target.png\" \/><\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"m-detail--tml-image-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"m-detail--tml-image-container\"><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption>\n<p class=\"tml-image--caption\">S&amp;P 500 chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish with thanks to Jeremy Grantham.<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Fourth Super Bubble\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>For almost a half-century, value-investing icon Jeremy Grantham has been calling market bubbles. Now, he says U.S. stocks are in a \u201csuper bubble,\u201d only the fourth in history, and poised to collapse.<\/p>\n<div class=\"m-detail--body-item m-detail--body-item-inline\">\n<figure class=\"m-video mm-video--landscape l-inline\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"JlEGU2ypr1Q\" class=\"m-video--frame\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube-nocookie.com\/embed\/JlEGU2ypr1Q\" width=\"598\" height=\"336\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Please do yourself a big favor and play the above interview in entirety.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s not a fluff interview. Bloomberg&#8217;s Erik Schatzker grills Jeremy Grantham right from the get go about Grantham&#8217;s view a year ago.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q&amp;A Snips<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Schatzker<\/strong>: At the risk of putting words in your mouth, you are as certain [now] as you were then, if not more?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Grantham<\/strong>: I would say clearly more. I did freely admit, not in our conversation, but elsewhere, that I wasn&#8217;t quite as certain about this bubble a year ago as I had\u00a0 been about the tech bubble of 2000 or as I had been in Japan or as I had been in the housing bubble of 2007. I used to think in terms of near certainties. This time I felt highly likely bit perhaps not nearly certain. Today I feel it is just about nearly certain.<\/p>\n<p>Grantham discusses &#8220;crazy behavior&#8221; , noting that even in 1929 you had some magnificent rallies.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Schatzker<\/strong>: If you are right and stocks are in a multi-sigma deviation from the statistical trend, tell me what happens. The S&amp;P 500 peaked at almost 4800 points. What is the bottom?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Grantham<\/strong>: The trend line, being slightly generous, is 2500. And most of the great bubbles, the super bubbles go below trend and stay there for quite a while&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Most People Have No Idea How Much Stocks are Likely to Crash Let&#8217;s discuss value investor Jeremy Grantham&#8217;s thesis on &#8220;super bubbles&#8221; and his target for the S&amp;P 500. S&amp;P 500 chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish with thanks to Jeremy Grantham. Fourth Super Bubble\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 For almost a half-century, value-investing icon Jeremy Grantham [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[30802,7195,501,14648,13390,6585,2731],"class_list":["post-61993","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-jeremy-grantham","tag-market-bubble","tag-market-crash","tag-michael-shedlock","tag-mishtalk","tag-stock-bubble","tag-stock-market-crash"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61993","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=61993"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61993\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61994,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61993\/revisions\/61994"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=61993"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=61993"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=61993"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}