{"id":61894,"date":"2022-02-15T09:41:33","date_gmt":"2022-02-15T14:41:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=61894"},"modified":"2022-02-15T09:41:33","modified_gmt":"2022-02-15T14:41:33","slug":"222-the-forecast-project","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=61894","title":{"rendered":"#222. The Forecast\u00a0Project"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"entry-header\">\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com\/2022\/02\/13\/222-the-forecast-project\/\">#222. The Forecast\u00a0Project<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><strong>PREDICTING THE ECONOMY OF THE FUTURE<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"in-the-western-world-at-least-there-s-an-almost-palpable-sense-of-public-uncertainty-anxiety-and-discontent-which-might-be-attributed-to-a-variety-of-causes-some-ascribe-it-to-specific-issues-some-to-the-over-reach-and-incompetence-or-worse-of-governments-and-others-to-widening-inequality-between-the-elites-and-everyone-else\">In the Western world, at least, there\u2019s an almost palpable sense of public uncertainty, anxiety and discontent which might be attributed to a variety of causes.<\/p>\n<p id=\"in-the-western-world-at-least-there-s-an-almost-palpable-sense-of-public-uncertainty-anxiety-and-discontent-which-might-be-attributed-to-a-variety-of-causes-some-ascribe-it-to-specific-issues-some-to-the-over-reach-and-incompetence-or-worse-of-governments-and-others-to-widening-inequality-between-the-elites-and-everyone-else\">Some ascribe it to specific issues, some to the over-reach and incompetence (or worse) of governments, and others to widening inequality between \u201cthe elites\u201d and everyone else.<\/p>\n<p id=\"the-view-taken-here-is-that-the-deteriorating-public-mood-has-a-more-straightforward-explanation-which-is-that-prior-growth-in-economic-prosperity-has-gone-into-reverse\">The view taken here is that the deteriorating public mood has a more straightforward explanation, which is that<strong>\u00a0prior growth in economic prosperity has gone into reverse<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"the-cessation-of-growth-and-the-onset-of-involuntary-economic-contraction-are-of-course-denied-by-governments-but-this-makes-popular-dissatisfaction-worse-if-the-economy-as-a-whole-is-supposed-to-be-growing-but-the-individual-finds-that-his-or-her-economic-circumstances-are-deteriorating-it-s-easy-to-assume-that-there-must-be-some-kind-of-bias-in-the-system\">The cessation of growth and the onset of involuntary economic contraction are, of course, denied by governments, but this makes popular dissatisfaction worse.<\/p>\n<p id=\"the-cessation-of-growth-and-the-onset-of-involuntary-economic-contraction-are-of-course-denied-by-governments-but-this-makes-popular-dissatisfaction-worse-if-the-economy-as-a-whole-is-supposed-to-be-growing-but-the-individual-finds-that-his-or-her-economic-circumstances-are-deteriorating-it-s-easy-to-assume-that-there-must-be-some-kind-of-bias-in-the-system\">If the economy as a whole is supposed to be growing, but the individual finds that his or her economic circumstances are deteriorating, it\u2019s easy to assume that there must be some kind of bias in the system.<\/p>\n<p id=\"in-fact-we-don-t-need-to-posit-conspiracy-theories-or-look-to-the-machinations-of-the-mighty-to-explain-worsening-hardship\">In fact, we don\u2019t need to posit conspiracy theories, or look to \u2018the machinations of the mighty\u2019, to explain worsening hardship.<\/p>\n<p id=\"the-simpler-reality-hidden-in-plain-sight-is-that-the-prosperity-of-the-average-person-is-eroding-and-so-at-the-same-time-is-his-or-her-sense-of-economic-security-efforts-to-use-financial-innovation-at-the-macroeconomic-level-to-stave-off-this-trend-have-failed-driving-people-ever-deeper-into-the-coils-of-debt-and-other-financial-commitments\">The simpler reality, hidden in plain sight, is that\u00a0<strong>the prosperity of the average person is eroding<\/strong>\u00a0and so, at the same time, is his or her sense of economic security. Efforts to use financial innovation at the macroeconomic level to stave off this trend have failed, driving people ever deeper into the coils of debt and other financial commitments.<\/p>\n<p id=\"in-short-the-average-person-is-getting-poorer-and-feeling-less-secure-he-or-she-doesn-t-like-it-and-is-baffled-and-suspicious-over-official-assurances-that-it-isn-t-happening-at-all\">In short, the average person is getting poorer, and feeling less secure. He or she doesn\u2019t like it, and is baffled and suspicious over official assurances that<em>\u00a0it isn\u2019t happening at all<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"projection-the-land-of-hazard\"><strong>Projection \u2013 the land of hazard<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"forecasting-involves-entering-territory-where-angels-fear-to-tread-but-the-publication-of-projections-has-now-become-imperative-made-so-a-by-the-rapid-worsening-in-the-public-mood-and-b-by-the-incomprehension-that-continues-to-inform-policy-decisions\">Forecasting involves entering territory \u2018where angels fear to tread\u2019. But the publication of projections has now become imperative, made so (a) by the rapid worsening in the public mood, and (b) by the incomprehension that continues to inform policy decisions.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>#222. The Forecast\u00a0Project PREDICTING THE ECONOMY OF THE FUTURE In the Western world, at least, there\u2019s an almost palpable sense of public uncertainty, anxiety and discontent which might be attributed to a variety of causes. Some ascribe it to specific issues, some to the over-reach and incompetence (or worse) of governments, and others to widening [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[2384,341,379,391,11440,10693,31315],"class_list":["post-61894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-elite","tag-future","tag-government","tag-growth","tag-overreach","tag-prediction","tag-surplus-energy-economics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61894","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=61894"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61894\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61895,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61894\/revisions\/61895"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=61894"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=61894"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=61894"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}