{"id":61792,"date":"2022-02-07T15:39:17","date_gmt":"2022-02-07T20:39:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=61792"},"modified":"2022-02-07T15:39:17","modified_gmt":"2022-02-07T20:39:17","slug":"scientists-conclude-dire-climate-change-models-were-wrong-now-what","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=61792","title":{"rendered":"Scientists Conclude Dire Climate Change Models Were Wrong, Now What?"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"m-detail-header mm-detail-header--content-position-above mm-detail-header--in-content-well\">\n<div class=\"m-detail-header--container\">\n<div class=\"m-detail-header--content\">\n<h3 class=\"m-detail-header--title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/economics\/scientists-conclude-dire-climate-change-models-were-wrong-now-what\">Scientists Conclude Dire Climate Change Models Were Wrong, Now What?<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"m-detail-header--dek\"><strong>Scientists admit they did not model clouds accurately and that they need a supercomputer 1000 times more powerful to accurately do that.<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"m-social mm-social--below-header\"><\/section>\n<div class=\"m-detail--body\">\n<div class=\"m-detail--body-item m-detail--body-item-inline\">\n<figure class=\"l-inline tml-image m-detail--tml-image--inline\"><a><picture class=\"is-loaded\"><source srcset=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_380\/MTg3MjMzNzAxNTY4OTgwODc4\/i-really-dont-know-clouds-at-all.webp 380w, https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_620\/MTg3MjMzNzAxNTY4OTgwODc4\/i-really-dont-know-clouds-at-all.webp 620w, https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_700\/MTg3MjMzNzAxNTY4OTgwODc4\/i-really-dont-know-clouds-at-all.webp 700w, https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_1043\/MTg3MjMzNzAxNTY4OTgwODc4\/i-really-dont-know-clouds-at-all.webp 1043w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1240px) 700px, (min-width: 675px) 620px, calc(100vw - 40px)\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_380\/MTg3MjMzNzAxNTY4OTgwODc4\/i-really-dont-know-clouds-at-all.png 380w, https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_620\/MTg3MjMzNzAxNTY4OTgwODc4\/i-really-dont-know-clouds-at-all.png 620w, https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_700\/MTg3MjMzNzAxNTY4OTgwODc4\/i-really-dont-know-clouds-at-all.png 700w, https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_1043\/MTg3MjMzNzAxNTY4OTgwODc4\/i-really-dont-know-clouds-at-all.png 1043w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 1240px) 700px, (min-width: 675px) 620px, calc(100vw - 40px)\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"m-detail--tml-image m-image\" src=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/t_share\/MTg3MjMzNzAxNTY4OTgwODc4\/i-really-dont-know-clouds-at-all.png\" srcset=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP\/\/\/yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7\" alt=\"Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah, image by Mish, quote by Judy Collins\" width=\"1043\" height=\"705\" data-src=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_700\/MTg3MjMzNzAxNTY4OTgwODc4\/i-really-dont-know-clouds-at-all.png\" \/><\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"m-detail--tml-image-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"m-detail--tml-image-container\"><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption>\n<p class=\"tml-image--caption\">Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah, image by Mish, quote by Judy Collins<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Climate Change Modeling Meets Limits of Science\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Wall Street Journal reports\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/climate-change-global-warming-computer-model-11642191155?st=5eotefamj84zvvz&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Climate Scientists Encounter Limits of Computer Models, Bedeviling Policy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><em>That is a non-paywalled, free-to-read link courtesy of the WSJ.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s lengthy but an excellent read. I encourage everyone to take a look.<\/p>\n<p>The dire predictions went out the window, seemingly unanimously. But there is plenty in the article for the fearmongers and the sceptics to both say &#8220;I told you so&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Italic\u00a0<em>emphasis<\/em>\u00a0in the snips below is mine.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"m-blockquote l-inline\"><p>For almost five years, an international consortium of scientists was chasing clouds, determined to solve a problem that bedeviled climate-change forecasts for a generation: How do these wisps of water vapor affect global warming?<\/p>\n<p>They reworked 2.1 million lines of supercomputer code used to explore the future of climate change, adding more-intricate equations for clouds and hundreds of other improvements. They tested the equations, debugged them and tested again.<\/p>\n<p><em>The scientists would find that even the best tools at hand can\u2019t model climates with the sureness the world needs as rising temperatures impact almost every region<\/em>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Dire Forecasts Wrong<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"m-blockquote l-inline\"><p>When they ran the updated simulation in 2018, the conclusion jolted them: Earth\u2019s atmosphere was much more sensitive to greenhouse gases than decades of previous models had predicted, and future temperatures could be much higher than feared\u2014perhaps even beyond hope of practical remedy.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Scientists Conclude Dire Climate Change Models Were Wrong, Now What? Scientists admit they did not model clouds accurately and that they need a supercomputer 1000 times more powerful to accurately do that. Bryce Canyon National Park, Utah, image by Mish, quote by Judy Collins Climate Change Modeling Meets Limits of Science\u00a0 The Wall Street Journal [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[141,32619,32620,14648,14785],"class_list":["post-61792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environment","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-change-models","tag-complexity-clouds","tag-michael-shedlock","tag-mish-talk"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61792","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=61792"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61792\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61793,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61792\/revisions\/61793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=61792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=61792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=61792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}