{"id":61395,"date":"2022-01-10T12:26:17","date_gmt":"2022-01-10T17:26:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=61395"},"modified":"2022-01-10T12:26:17","modified_gmt":"2022-01-10T17:26:17","slug":"minsky-moments-almost-certainly-await-nomura-fears-collateral-damage-from-the-qe-to-qt-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=61395","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Minsky Moments Almost Certainly Await&#8221;: Nomura Fears &#8216;Collateral&#8217; Damage From The QE-to-QT Transition"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"ArticleFull_header__11o5_\">\n<h3 class=\"ArticleFull_title__2cUI6\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/its-really-crappy-set-nomura-fears-collateral-damage-qe-qt-transition\">&#8220;Minsky Moments Almost Certainly Await&#8221;: Nomura Fears &#8216;Collateral&#8217; Damage From The QE-to-QT Transition<\/a><\/h3>\n<footer class=\"ArticleFull_headerFooter__2Nt6Y\"><\/footer>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"NodeContent_mainContent__38L44\">\n<div class=\"NodeContent_body__2clki NodeBody_container__1M6aJ\">\n<p><strong>&#8220;Minsky Moments&#8221; almost certainly await,<\/strong>\u00a0warns Nomura&#8217;s Charlie McElligott in his latest note as he reflects on\u00a0<strong>a massive week ahead for markets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>With Powell testimony and bunches of Fed speakers, along with US economic releases\u00a0<strong>headlined by the market\u2019s most important datapoint in the CPI release Wednesday,<\/strong>\u00a0in addition to PPI, Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment over the course of the week, plus two Duration-heavy auctions ($36B of 10Y and $22B 30Y, on top of tomorrow\u2019s $52B 3Y),&#8230; and finally, US corporate earnings season kickoff (highlighted by JPM, C and WFC this upcoming Friday), it is no wonder that investors are degrossing still&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/2022-01-10_06-44-27.jpg?itok=LgmPET30\" data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/2022-01-10_06-44-27.jpg?itok=LgmPET30\" data-link-option=\"0\"><picture><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"inline-images image-style-inline-images\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/2022-01-10_06-44-27.jpg?itok=LgmPET30\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"337\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"3d88753f-91d2-4c93-9899-e7ad49c42281\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" \/><\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n<p>While the long-end of the curve is reversing modestly &#8211; after some more ugliness overnight &#8211; STIRs continue to grind hawkishly higher with March now consolidating around a\u00a0<strong>90% chance of a rate-hike<\/strong>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/2022-01-10_05-36-10.jpg?itok=xABBA6ew\" data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/2022-01-10_05-36-10.jpg?itok=xABBA6ew\" data-link-option=\"0\"><picture><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"inline-images image-style-inline-images\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/2022-01-10_05-36-10.jpg?itok=xABBA6ew\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"293\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"577ae375-b6c4-4288-8f1e-2754b16a1335\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" \/><\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n<p>McElligott raises some\u00a0<strong>worries of a rapid &#8216;reversal&#8217; risk in bonds &#8211; via \u201cmarket tantrum\u201d forcing the Fed to yet-again \u201cBend the Knee\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0&#8211; as market positioning in bonds is extreme to say the least.<\/p>\n<p>Looking at the QIS CTA Trend model to get a sense of the \u201cbearish momentum\u201d and asymmetry within Fixed-Income positioning, we currently see\u00a0<strong>the net exposure across G10 Bonds is back to 10 year historical \u201cextreme Short\u201d at just 2.2%ile overall exposure since 2011<\/strong>; further, the aggregate $notional position across the agg G10 Bond positions is now greater that -2 SD rank (i.e. very \u201cnet Short\u201d) dating all the way back to 2002.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/image003%20%2828%29.png?itok=bJG5NE3D\" data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/image003%20%2828%29.png?itok=bJG5NE3D\" data-link-option=\"0\"><picture><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"inline-images image-style-inline-images\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/image003%20%2828%29.png?itok=bJG5NE3D\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"373\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"1f20bd08-bc7e-422f-b928-00eb1bc14d2d\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" \/><\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Similarly, the Nomura MD notes that eventually, the more this selloff in legacy long \/ crowded hyper Growth Tech extends, there is ultimately a mounting risk of a sharp counter-trend rally in beaten-down Nasdaq, particularly considering the extremely magnitude of the Dealer \u201cshort Gamma\u201d profile in QQQ ($Gamma -$476mm, 3.4%ile since 2013&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Minsky Moments Almost Certainly Await&#8221;: Nomura Fears &#8216;Collateral&#8217; Damage From The QE-to-QT Transition &#8220;Minsky Moments&#8221; almost certainly await,\u00a0warns Nomura&#8217;s Charlie McElligott in his latest note as he reflects on\u00a0a massive week ahead for markets. With Powell testimony and bunches of Fed speakers, along with US economic releases\u00a0headlined by the market\u2019s most important datapoint in the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[122,303,3018,534,8470,661,8701,662,8625,3650,4318],"class_list":["post-61395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-central-bank","tag-fed","tag-minsky-moment","tag-monetary-policy","tag-nomura","tag-qe","tag-qt","tag-quantitative-easing","tag-quantitative-tightening","tag-us-federal-reserve","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61395","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=61395"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61395\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61396,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61395\/revisions\/61396"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=61395"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=61395"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=61395"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}