{"id":60839,"date":"2021-12-08T20:26:00","date_gmt":"2021-12-09T01:26:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=60839"},"modified":"2021-12-08T20:26:00","modified_gmt":"2021-12-09T01:26:00","slug":"u-s-shale-oil-and-gas-forecast-too-good-to-be-true","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=60839","title":{"rendered":"U.S. shale oil and gas forecast: Too good to be true?"},"content":{"rendered":"

U.S. shale oil and gas forecast: Too good to be true?<\/a><\/h3>\n
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Earth scientist David Hughes\u2014who is out with\u00a0a new skeptical report<\/a>\u00a0on the future of U.S. shale oil and gas\u2014has two very important things in common with Michael Burry. Burry is the investor made famous by\u00a0The Big Short<\/i><\/a>, the book that was later turned into a movie of the same name about the 2008 housing crash.<\/p>\n

Both men made calls that contradicted an almost unanimous consensus, and both did so after dogged, painstaking research.<\/p>\n

First, let\u2019s look at the latest from Hughes, an update on the U.S. shale oil and gas industry entitled\u00a0\u201cShale Reality Check 2021.\u201d<\/a>\u00a0Then, we\u2019ll return to his previous prescient call.<\/p>\n

\u201cShale Reality Check 2021\u201d seriously undermines rosy long-term forecasts made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for U.S. oil and natural gas from shale deposits. This matters because the EIA\u2019s forecasts are counting on shale for 69 percent of all U.S. oil production from 2020 to 2050 and 77 percent of all U.S. natural gas production in the same period. And, it matters to the world because between 2008 and 2018, growth in\u00a0U.S. oil production accounted for 73 percent of the entire growth in global supplies<\/a>. (Oil from shale deposits is properly known as \u201ctight oil,\u201d a type of oil also found in other kinds of rock. Natural gas from shale deposits is typically referred to as \u201cshale gas.\u201d)<\/p>\n

<\/a>Hughes\u2019 conclusions are based on commercially available drilling and production data. Here are his overall findings:<\/p>\n

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    1. Of the 13 major plays he evaluated, Hughes rates the EIA\u2019s production forecast for five as \u201cmoderately optimistic,\u201d five as \u201chighly optimistic,\u201d and three as \u201cextremely optimistic.\u201d The EIA forecast for the Wolfcamp Play, the largest tight oil play, is rated as \u201chighly optimistic.\u201d The forecast for the Marcellus Play, the largest shale gas play, is rated as \u201cmoderately optimistic.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      \u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      U.S. shale oil and gas forecast: Too good to be true? Earth scientist David Hughes\u2014who is out with\u00a0a new skeptical report\u00a0on the future of U.S. shale oil and gas\u2014has two very important things in common with Michael Burry. Burry is the investor made famous by\u00a0The Big Short, the book that was later turned into a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[2244,4752,4967,722,723],"class_list":["post-60839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-david-hughes","tag-kurt-cobb","tag-resource-insights","tag-shale-gas","tag-shale-oil"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60839","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=60839"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60839\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60840,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60839\/revisions\/60840"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=60839"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=60839"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=60839"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}