{"id":60776,"date":"2021-12-04T07:31:57","date_gmt":"2021-12-04T12:31:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=60776"},"modified":"2021-12-04T07:31:57","modified_gmt":"2021-12-04T12:31:57","slug":"216-its-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=60776","title":{"rendered":"#216. It\u2019s now"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"entry-header\">\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com\/2021\/11\/29\/216-its-now\/\">#216. It\u2019s now<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><strong>TIMING THE MOMENT OF FRACTURE<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"when-and-how-can-we-know-that-a-change-of-direction-is-fundamental-and-lasting-rather-than-a-temporary-departure-from-established-trends\">When and how can we know that a change of direction is fundamental and lasting, rather than a temporary departure from established trends?<\/p>\n<p id=\"that-in-essence-is-the-call-we-need-to-make-now-far-from-being-transitory-current-conditions-including-rising-inflation-surging-energy-prices-and-the-over-stressing-of-supply-chains-are-indicators-of-a-structural-change\">That, in essence, is\u00a0<em>the call we need to make now<\/em>. Far from being \u201ctransitory\u201d, current conditions \u2013 including rising inflation, surging energy prices and the over-stressing of supply-chains \u2013 are indicators of a structural change.<\/p>\n<p id=\"ultimately-what-we-re-witnessing-is-a-forced-restoration-of-equilibrium-between-a-faltering-real-economy-of-goods-and-services-and-a-drastically-over-extended-financial-economy-of-money-and-credit\">Ultimately, what we\u2019re witnessing is a\u00a0<em>forced restoration of equilibrium<\/em>\u00a0between a faltering\u00a0<em>real<\/em>\u00a0economy of goods and services and a drastically over-extended\u00a0<em>financial<\/em>\u00a0economy of money and credit.<\/p>\n<p id=\"this-is-where-confidence-in-continuity-crumbles-where-the-delusions-of-growth-in-perpetuity-succumb-to-the-hard-reality-of-resource-constraint-and-where-shocks-that-are-no-surprises-shake-the-financial-system\">This is where confidence in continuity crumbles, where the delusions of \u2018growth in perpetuity\u2019 succumb to the hard reality of\u00a0<em>resource constraint<\/em>, and where \u2018shocks that are no surprises\u2019 shake the financial system.<\/p>\n<p id=\"if-you-want-just-two-indicators-to-watch-one-of-these-is-the-volumetric-rather-than-the-financial-direction-of-the-economy-and-the-other-is-the-behaviour-of-the-prices-of-essentials-within-the-broader-inflationary-situation\">If you want just two indicators to watch, one of these is the\u00a0<strong>volumetric\u00a0<\/strong>(rather than the financial) direction of the economy, and the other is the behaviour of the prices\u00a0<strong>of essentials\u00a0<\/strong>within the broader inflationary situation.<\/p>\n<p id=\"the-economics-of-stress\"><strong>The economics of stress<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"in-the-science-of-materials-it-s-observable-that-fractures-happen-quickly-even-if-the-stresses-that-cause-them-have-accumulated-over-a-protracted-period-we-can-spend-hours-days-weeks-or-even-years-gradually-increasing-the-tension-applied-to-an-iron-bar-but-the-ensuing-snap-in-that-bar-will-happen-almost-instantaneously\">In the science of materials, it\u2019s observable that fractures happen quickly, even if the stresses that cause them have accumulated over a protracted period. We can spend hours, days, weeks or even years gradually increasing the tension applied to an iron bar, but the ensuing snap in that bar will happen almost instantaneously.<\/p>\n<p id=\"economics-isn-t-a-science-but-there-s-a-direct-analogy-here-anyone-who-understands-the-economy-as-an-energy-system-will-be-well-aware-of-a-relentless-long-standing-build-up-of-stresses\">Economics isn\u2019t a science, but there\u2019s a direct analogy here. Anyone who understands the economy\u00a0<em>as an energy system<\/em>\u00a0will be well aware of a relentless, long-standing build-up of stresses.<\/p>\n<p id=\"they-ll-be-equally-aware-that-this-cannot-continue-indefinitely\">They\u2019ll be equally aware that this cannot continue indefinitely.<\/p>\n<p id=\"two-things-matter-now\">Two things matter now.<\/p>\n<p id=\"first-when-will-these-cumulative-pressures-bring-about-the-moment-of-fracture\">First,\u00a0<em>when<\/em>\u00a0will these cumulative pressures bring about the moment of fracture?<\/p>\n<p id=\"second-what-should-we-expect-to-see-when-this-snapping-point-is-reached\">Second,\u00a0<em>what<\/em>\u00a0should we expect to see when this snapping-point is reached?<\/p>\n<p id=\"the-answers-to-the-second-question-are-pretty-clear\">The answers to the second question are pretty clear.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>#216. It\u2019s now TIMING THE MOMENT OF FRACTURE When and how can we know that a change of direction is fundamental and lasting, rather than a temporary departure from established trends? That, in essence, is\u00a0the call we need to make now. Far from being \u201ctransitory\u201d, current conditions \u2013 including rising inflation, surging energy prices and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[11008,1469,31315,6856,31314],"class_list":["post-60776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-equilibrium","tag-stress","tag-surplus-energy-economics","tag-systemic-collapse","tag-tim-morgan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60776","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=60776"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60776\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60777,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60776\/revisions\/60777"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=60776"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=60776"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=60776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}