{"id":60511,"date":"2021-11-18T07:18:46","date_gmt":"2021-11-18T12:18:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=60511"},"modified":"2021-11-18T07:18:46","modified_gmt":"2021-11-18T12:18:46","slug":"215-the-price-of-equilibrium","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=60511","title":{"rendered":"#215. The price of\u00a0equilibrium"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"entry-header\">\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com\/2021\/11\/16\/215-the-price-of-equilibrium\/\">#215. The price of\u00a0equilibrium<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><strong>FUTURITY, REALITY AND THE COMING FINANCIAL CORRECTION<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"the-simplest-way-to-define-the-current-economic-and-broader-situation-is-that-consensus-expectations-and-realistically-probable-outcomes-have-become-polar-opposites-one-of-the-most-predictable-consequences-of-this-disparity-is-a-sharp-fall-both-in-asset-pricing-and-in-the-viability-of-forward-financial-commitments\">The simplest way to define the current economic and broader situation is that consensus expectations and realistically probable outcomes have become polar opposites.<\/p>\n<p id=\"the-simplest-way-to-define-the-current-economic-and-broader-situation-is-that-consensus-expectations-and-realistically-probable-outcomes-have-become-polar-opposites-one-of-the-most-predictable-consequences-of-this-disparity-is-a-sharp-fall-both-in-asset-pricing-and-in-the-viability-of-forward-financial-commitments\">One of the most predictable consequences of this disparity is\u00a0<strong>a sharp fall, both in asset pricing and in the viability of forward financial commitments<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"shared-by-governments-businesses-the-mainstream-media-and-a-large-proportion-of-the-general-public-the-consensus-line-is-cornucopian-picturing-a-future-of-abundance-characterised-by-continuing-economic-growth-exponential-technological-progress-and-a-seamless-transition-from-climate-harming-fossil-fuels-to-renewable-energy-sources-res-such-as-wind-and-solar-power\">Shared by governments, businesses, the mainstream media and a large proportion of the general public, the consensus line is cornucopian, picturing a future of abundance characterised by continuing economic growth, exponential technological progress and a seamless transition from climate-harming fossil fuels to renewable energy sources (REs) such as wind and solar power.<\/p>\n<p id=\"this-essentially-optimistic-narrative-is-based-on-a-series-of-compounding-fallacies-which-we-might-summarise-as-misconceptions-of-capability\">This essentially optimistic narrative is based on a series of compounding fallacies, which we might summarise as\u00a0<em>misconceptions of capability<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"three-critical-realities-are-ignored-one-of-these-is-that-the-economy-is-an-energy-system-which-cannot-be-propelled-to-infinite-expansion-by-means-of-the-human-artefact-of-money\">Three critical realities are ignored. One of these is that\u00a0<em>the economy is an energy system<\/em>, which cannot be propelled to infinite expansion by means of the human artefact of money.<\/p>\n<p id=\"a-second-is-that-the-scope-for-technology-is-bounded-by-the-laws-of-physics\">A second is that the scope for technology\u00a0<em>is bounded by the laws of physics<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"the-third-and-arguably-the-most-important-reality-ignored-by-the-consensus-narrative-is-that-res-are-unlikely-to-replicate-the-characteristics-and-economic-value-historically-provided-by-energy-from-oil-natural-gas-and-coal\">The third \u2013 and arguably the most important \u2013 reality ignored by the consensus narrative is that REs are\u00a0<em>unlikely to replicate<\/em>\u00a0the characteristics and economic value historically provided by energy from oil, natural gas and coal.<\/p>\n<p id=\"those-of-us-who-understand-the-economy-in-energy-terms-have-to-weigh-two-possible-courses-of-action-these-are-not-mutually-exclusive-but-a-balance-does-need-to-be-found-one-of-these-is-the-advocacy-of-reality-the-other-is-analysis-which-involves-working-out-the-probable-series-of-events-and-providing-information-which-will-be-of-value-once-the-failure-of-the-consensus-narrative-ushers-in-a-new-pragmatism\">Those of us who understand the economy in energy terms have to weigh two possible courses of action. These are not mutually exclusive, but a balance does need to be found. One of these is the advocacy of reality. The other is analysis, which involves working out the probable series of events, and providing information which will be of value\u00a0<em>once the failure of the consensus narrative ushers in a new pragmatism<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>#215. The price of\u00a0equilibrium FUTURITY, REALITY AND THE COMING FINANCIAL CORRECTION The simplest way to define the current economic and broader situation is that consensus expectations and realistically probable outcomes have become polar opposites. One of the most predictable consequences of this disparity is\u00a0a sharp fall, both in asset pricing and in the viability of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[11008,31315,31360],"class_list":["post-60511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-equilibrium","tag-surplus-energy-economics","tag-tim-watkins"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=60511"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60511\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60512,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60511\/revisions\/60512"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=60511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=60511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=60511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}