{"id":60328,"date":"2021-11-07T07:09:27","date_gmt":"2021-11-07T12:09:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=60328"},"modified":"2021-11-07T07:09:27","modified_gmt":"2021-11-07T12:09:27","slug":"why-4c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=60328","title":{"rendered":"Why 4\u00b0C?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Why 4\u00b0C?<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Climatologists say that civilization can\u2019t survive global warming of 4o<\/sup>C over the pre-industrial average. Some climatologists even say that civilization can\u2019t survive 3o<\/sup>C.\u00a0 A temperature increase of 4o<\/sup>C over the pre-industrial average sounds fairly trivial so why would that cause civilization to collapse?<\/p>\n

First, for Americans, a 4.0o<\/sup>C temperature increase corresponds to a 7.2o<\/sup>F temperature increase.\u00a0 Maybe that still doesn\u2019t sound too bad but it\u2019s a big problem because the 7.2o<\/sup>F increase is an average over the globe and the temperature increase will not be homogeneous.<\/p>\n

Some places will warm more than 7.2o<\/sup>F and some places less than 7.2o<\/sup>F.\u00a0 The regions that will warm substantially more than 7.2o<\/sup>F include high latitude regions and large landmasses.\u00a0 We can see that happening already with the global temperature change over the last 50 years (See Figure 1):<\/p>\n

\"chart1\"<\/p>\n

Figure 1:\u00a0 Global Temperature Change from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 (From NASA)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Figures II and III are projections of future warming across the globe:<\/p>\n

\"chart2\"<\/p>\n

Figure II: Average annual air temperature change (\u00b0C) at the Earth surface for two scenarios of future climate relative to the average of temperature between 1980 to 1999<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"chart3\"<\/p>\n

Figure III-Warming during days and nights (Maps from NASA)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Not only will temperatures be higher in the future, but precipitation patterns will change over time, illustrated by predictions from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research shown in Figure IV:<\/p>\n

\"chart4\"<\/p>\n

Figure IV-Predictions of future precipitation changes from the National Center for Atmospheric Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hotter and drier conditions will make growing food more challenging.\u00a0 As it is now, a substantial amount of agricultural production in the U.S., as well as in other countries, takes place in regions that rely on irrigation, particularly in the southwestern U.S. and the Great Plains.\u00a0 The water for irrigation comes from both surface water and aquifer sources.<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Why 4\u00b0C? Climatologists say that civilization can\u2019t survive global warming of 4oC over the pre-industrial average. Some climatologists even say that civilization can\u2019t survive 3oC.\u00a0 A temperature increase of 4oC over the pre-industrial average sounds fairly trivial so why would that cause civilization to collapse? First, for Americans, a 4.0oC temperature increase corresponds to a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[141,2956,369,6665,19260],"class_list":["post-60328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environment","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-science","tag-global-warming","tag-resilience-org","tag-roger-blanchard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60328","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=60328"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60328\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60329,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60328\/revisions\/60329"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=60328"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=60328"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=60328"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}