{"id":59418,"date":"2021-09-21T07:12:13","date_gmt":"2021-09-21T12:12:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=59418"},"modified":"2021-09-21T07:12:13","modified_gmt":"2021-09-21T12:12:13","slug":"the-case-for-contingency-planning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=59418","title":{"rendered":"The case for contingency planning"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"entry-header\">\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com\/2021\/09\/19\/211-the-case-for-contingency-planning\/?fbclid=IwAR2gjUZVhCxSslAWnD2HS_mknHRMBktOdeJq6k1EPwdXKvDwYYr1SWX9688\">The case for contingency planning<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><strong>LONG-ODDS BET OR A PORTFOLIO OF SCENARIOS?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>An intelligent investor \u2013 as distinct from a gambler \u2013 doesn\u2019t put all his or her money on a single counter. He doesn\u2019t stake everything on a single stock, a single sector, a single asset class, a single country or a single currency. The case for\u00a0<em>portfolio<\/em>\u00a0diversification rests on the existence of a multiplicity of possible outcomes, of plausible\u00a0<em>scenarios<\/em>\u00a0which differ from the investor\u2019s \u2018central-case\u2019 assumption.<\/p>\n<p>This isn\u2019t a discussion of market theory, even though that\u2019s a fascinating area, and hasn\u2019t lost its relevance, even at a time when markets have become, to a large extent, adjuncts of monetary policy expectation. The concept of \u2018value\u2019 hasn\u2019t been lost, merely temporarily mislaid.<\/p>\n<p>Rather, it\u2019s a reflection on\u00a0<strong>the need to prepare for more than one possible outcome<\/strong>. Sayings to this effect run through history, attaining almost the stature of proverbs. \u201cHope for the best, prepare for the worst\u201d is one example. Others include \u201cstrive for peace, but be prepared for war\u201d, and \u201cprovide for a rainy day\u201d. There\u2019s a body of thought which has always favoured supplementing hope with preparation.<\/p>\n<p>Dictionaries might not accept the term \u201cmono-scenarial\u201d, but it describes where we are,\u00a0<strong>working to a single scenario, with scant preparedness for any alternative outcome<\/strong>. The orthodox line is that the economy will carry on growing in perpetuity. Obvious problems, such as the deteriorating economics of fossil fuels and the worsening threat to the environment, will be overcome using renewable energy and the alchemy of \u201ctechnology\u201d, with \u201cstimulus\u201d deployed to smooth out any economic pains of transition.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The case for contingency planning LONG-ODDS BET OR A PORTFOLIO OF SCENARIOS? An intelligent investor \u2013 as distinct from a gambler \u2013 doesn\u2019t put all his or her money on a single counter. He doesn\u2019t stake everything on a single stock, a single sector, a single asset class, a single country or a single currency. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3,4,7],"tags":[328,391,4514,649,650,31819,31315,31314],"class_list":["post-59418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","category-environment","category-survival-2","tag-fossil-fuels","tag-growth","tag-perpetual-growth","tag-preparedness","tag-prepping","tag-scenarios","tag-surplus-energy-economics","tag-tim-morgan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59418","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=59418"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59418\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":59419,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59418\/revisions\/59419"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=59418"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=59418"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=59418"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}