{"id":59262,"date":"2021-09-10T18:15:53","date_gmt":"2021-09-10T23:15:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=59262"},"modified":"2021-09-10T18:15:53","modified_gmt":"2021-09-10T23:15:53","slug":"unextractable-fossil-fuels-in-a-1-5%e2%80%89c-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=59262","title":{"rendered":"Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5\u2009\u00b0C world"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5\u2009\u00b0C world<\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<\/div>\n
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Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged to limit global warming to well below 2\u2009\u00b0C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5\u2009\u00b0C relative to pre-industrial times1<\/a><\/sup>. However, fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy system and a sharp decline in their use must be realized to keep the temperature increase below 1.5\u2009\u00b0C (refs.\u00a02<\/a>,3<\/a>,4<\/a>,5<\/a>,6<\/a>,7<\/a><\/sup>). Here we use a global energy systems model8<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0to assess the amount of fossil fuels that would need to be left in the ground, regionally and globally, to allow for a 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5\u2009\u00b0C. By 2050, we find that nearly 60 per cent of oil and fossil methane gas, and 90 per cent of coal must remain unextracted to keep within a 1.5\u2009\u00b0C carbon budget. This is a large increase in the unextractable estimates for a 2\u2009\u00b0C carbon budget9<\/a><\/sup>, particularly for oil, for which an additional 25 per cent of reserves must remain unextracted. Furthermore, we estimate that oil and gas production must decline globally by 3\u00a0per cent each year until 2050. This implies that most regions must reach peak production now or during the next decade, rendering many operational and planned fossil fuel projects unviable. We probably present an underestimate of the production changes required, because a greater than 50 per cent probability of limiting warming to 1.5\u2009\u00b0C requires more carbon to stay in the ground and because of uncertainties around the timely deployment of negative emission technologies at scale.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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Main<\/strong><\/p>\n

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In 2015, McGlade and Ekins9<\/a><\/sup> set out the limits to fossil fuel extraction under stringent climate targets. They estimated that one-third of oil reserves, almost half of fossil methane gas reserves and over 80% of current coal reserves should remain in the ground in 2050 to limit warming to 2\u2009\u00b0C….<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

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\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Unextractable fossil fuels in a 1.5\u2009\u00b0C world Abstract Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement pledged to limit global warming to well below 2\u2009\u00b0C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5\u2009\u00b0C relative to pre-industrial times1. However, fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy system and a sharp decline in their use […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,4],"tags":[141,31749,328,31750,14354,31752,31751],"class_list":["post-59262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","category-environment","tag-climate-change","tag-dan-welsby","tag-fossil-fuels","tag-james-price","tag-paris-agreement","tag-paul-ekins-nature","tag-steve-pye"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59262","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=59262"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59262\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":59263,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59262\/revisions\/59263"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=59262"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=59262"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=59262"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}