{"id":57650,"date":"2021-05-03T06:35:10","date_gmt":"2021-05-03T11:35:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=57650"},"modified":"2021-05-03T06:35:10","modified_gmt":"2021-05-03T11:35:10","slug":"would-the-last-market-bull-with-the-last-dollar-please-turn-off-the-music","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=57650","title":{"rendered":"Would the Last Market Bull With the Last Dollar Please Turn Off the Music?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Would the Last Market Bull With the Last Dollar Please Turn Off the Music?<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n
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\"Will<\/p>\n
Photo by Pablo Heimplatz on Unsplash<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Reality\u00a0always<\/em>\u00a0wins in the end.<\/p>\n

It doesn\u2019t matter if you\u2019re excited about the economy or its outlook. Unless some economic scam is being perpetuated (unlikely), fundamentals\u00a0always<\/strong>\u00a0play a factor, and guide the U.S. economy through peaks and valleys.<\/p>\n

Fundamentals like supply, demand, inflation, deflation, and so on. At some point, even the mainstream media \u201chype circus\u201d won\u2019t be able to manufacture enough consent to maintain any stock market illusions that things are \u201cjust peachy.\u201d\u00a0Reality<\/a>\u00a0always<\/strong>\u00a0cuts through the noise, and we could be approaching that point right\u00a0now.<\/em><\/p>\n

For example,\u00a0Brian Maher<\/a>\u00a0wrote: \u201cThe gap between stock market and economy presently spans to preposterous dimensions.\u201d<\/p>\n

Reality seems to agree. As you can see from the most recent Buffett Indicator, the market is valued\u00a0234% higher than GDP<\/strong>\u00a0(88% above the historical average):<\/p>\n

\"April<\/p>\n

Current Market Valuation<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

No matter what you think of the indicator itself, the ratio of market value to GDP is plain as day. And its place in history, 2.9 standard deviations above the 30-year average, beats both the top of the dot-com bubble and the highs before the 2008 financial crisis.<\/p>\n

Maher explains one possible reason why the ratio line shown on the chart above jumped so dramatically since early 2020:<\/p>\n

More money has poured into stock funds within the past five months ($569 billion)\u2026 than the previous 12 years combined ($452 billion).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Market optimists like Art Hogan seem to\u00a0attribute all of this \u201cgood market fortune\u201d<\/a>\u00a0to, as he puts it, \u201can explosion in economic activity that likely will have some earnings growth in its wake.\u201d This \u201clikely\u201d earnings growth at some unspecified point in the future doesn\u2019t exactly sound like a prudent bet, does it?<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Would the Last Market Bull With the Last Dollar Please Turn Off the Music? Photo by Pablo Heimplatz on Unsplash Reality\u00a0always\u00a0wins in the end. It doesn\u2019t matter if you\u2019re excited about the economy or its outlook. Unless some economic scam is being perpetuated (unlikely), fundamentals\u00a0always\u00a0play a factor, and guide the U.S. economy through peaks and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[18769,5186,1849,827],"class_list":["post-57650","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-birch-gold-group","tag-bull-market","tag-financial-markets","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57650","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=57650"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57650\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57651,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57650\/revisions\/57651"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=57650"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=57650"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=57650"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}