{"id":57303,"date":"2021-03-29T09:25:12","date_gmt":"2021-03-29T14:25:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=57303"},"modified":"2021-03-29T09:25:12","modified_gmt":"2021-03-29T14:25:12","slug":"brace-brace-brace-global-supply-chains-instability-and-archegos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=57303","title":{"rendered":"Brace, Brace, Brace: Global Supply Chains, Instability and Archegos"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"hero-section\" data-type=\"type-2\">\n<header class=\"entry-header ct-container-narrow\">\n<h3 class=\"page-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/morningporridge.com\/blog\/blains-morning-porridge\/brace-brace-brace-global-supply-chains-instability-and-archegos\/\">Brace, Brace, Brace: Global Supply Chains, Instability and Archegos<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"page-description ct-hidden-sm\">You could not make this up; an unimaginably complex WW3 Techno-thriller unfolding as markets stumble and global supply chains hover on the edge of anarchy. On the other hand, maybe that\u2019s just the way it was planned.<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"ct-container\" data-sidebar=\"right\" data-v-spacing=\"top:bottom\" data-structure=\"classic:wide\">\n<section>\n<article id=\"post-8003\" class=\"post-8003 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-blains-morning-porridge category-china category-cyberstrike category-economy category-market-crash category-markets category-megatrends category-supply-chains category-usa tag-archegos tag-china tag-coronavirus tag-global-economy tag-supply-chains tag-us\">\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><em>\u201cThe supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This morning \u2013\u00a0<strong>You could not make this up; an unimaginably complex WW3 Techno-thriller unfolding as markets stumble and global supply chains hover on the edge of anarchy. On the other hand, maybe that\u2019s just the way it was planned.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>I am not one for conspiracy theories. But\u2026 this morning\u2026 If I was a writer of trashy global-techno-World War 3 pulp fiction, and proposed the following scenario where the global economy lurches into an unprecedented period of instability \u2013 nobody would believe me:<\/p>\n<p>1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Global Supply Chains, weakened and struggling after a year of global pandemic, plus a growing shortage of microchips holding back multiple industrial sectors, are plunged into new crisis by a puff of wind causing a box-ship to skite sideways and block the Suez Canal, trapping East-West Trade.<\/p>\n<p>2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Unstable and over-priced Global Markets are spooked into a frenzy late on a quiet Friday night by the largest margin calls ever ($20 bln plus) as an Asian \u201cfamily office\u201d dumps billions of dollars of stock into the market. Collateral damage spreads, as other financial firms, (inevitably including Credit Suisse (Switzerland\u2019s very own Deutsche Bank), and Nomura), announce material losses.<\/p>\n<p>3)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0As global central banks struggle to restore real growth, while trying to hold interest rates low and support commerce, and acutely conscious of how a market crash could crush global confidence \u2013 things suddenly get more difficult as confidence in equity valuations takes a massive knock.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<p>bill blain, morning porridge, supply chains, supply chain disruptions, risk<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Brace, Brace, Brace: Global Supply Chains, Instability and Archegos You could not make this up; an unimaginably complex WW3 Techno-thriller unfolding as markets stumble and global supply chains hover on the edge of anarchy. On the other hand, maybe that\u2019s just the way it was planned. \u201cThe supreme art of war is to subdue the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[15674,22663,690,31091,3237],"class_list":["post-57303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bill-blain","tag-morning-porridge","tag-risk","tag-supply-chain-disruptions","tag-supply-chains"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57303","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=57303"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57303\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57304,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57303\/revisions\/57304"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=57303"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=57303"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=57303"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}