{"id":57166,"date":"2021-03-18T09:38:36","date_gmt":"2021-03-18T14:38:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=57166"},"modified":"2021-03-19T19:38:52","modified_gmt":"2021-03-20T00:38:52","slug":"zero-by-2050-or-2030-1-5c-or-2c-overshoot-or-not-demystifying-carbon-budgets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=57166","title":{"rendered":"Zero by 2050 or 2030? 1.5\u00b0C or 2\u00b0C? Overshoot or not? Demystifying carbon budgets."},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"post-title entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatecodered.org\/2021\/03\/zero-by-2050-or-2030-15c-or-2c.html\">Zero by 2050 or 2030? 1.5\u00b0C or 2\u00b0C? Overshoot or not? Demystifying carbon budgets.<\/a><\/h3>\n<div id=\"post-body-8670883799368215468\" class=\"post-body entry-content\">\n<div class=\"separator\"><b><a href=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ur-e3OeMWFQ\/YD2eFaDHCII\/AAAAAAAACRI\/UO_vYStyBF4PFKzHSjmMBl3zCl0yG8XtgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s449\/Screen%2BShot%2B2021-03-01%2Bat%2B8.17.06%2BPM.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/1.bp.blogspot.com\/-ur-e3OeMWFQ\/YD2eFaDHCII\/AAAAAAAACRI\/UO_vYStyBF4PFKzHSjmMBl3zCl0yG8XtgCLcBGAsYHQ\/s320\/Screen%2BShot%2B2021-03-01%2Bat%2B8.17.06%2BPM.png\" height=\"320\" border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"449\" data-original-width=\"297\" \/><\/a><\/b><\/div>\n<p><b><br \/>\n<\/b>Confused about carbon budgets for the Paris climate\u00a0 goals? Zero by 2050 or 2030? 1.5\u00b0C or 2\u00b0C? Overshoot or not?<br \/>\nThere is a maze of contradictory positions,\u00a0 claiming to be based on research evidence. But the assumptions behind much of that evidence obscures some startling conclusions.<\/p>\n<p>The Breakthough\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.breakthroughonline.org.au\/briefings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Briefing Note on &#8220;Carbon budgets for 1.5 &amp; 2\u00b0C&#8221;<\/a>,\u00a0 released today, explores some of the myths and realities about the Paris Agreement targets and the associated carbon budgets, and what it would really take to achieve them.<\/p>\n<p>The main findings are:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>IPCC carbon budgets underestimate current and future warming, omit important climate system feedback mechanisms, and make dangerous assumptions about risk-management.<\/li>\n<li>1.5\u00b0C of warming is likely by 2030 or earlier, a product of past emissions.<\/li>\n<li>There is no carbon budget for the 1.5\u00b0C goal; such \u201cbudgets\u201d rely on overshoot, with unrealistic reliance on speculative technologies.<\/li>\n<li>The current level of greenhouse gases is enough for around 2\u00b0C of warming, or more.<\/li>\n<li>2\u00b0C of warming is far from safe, and may trigger the \u201cHothouse Earth\u201d scenario.<\/li>\n<li>There is no carbon budget for 2\u00b0C if a sensible risk-management approach is taken.<\/li>\n<li>Even accepting the IPCC carbon budget for 2\u00b0C at face value, emissions need to be zero before 2030 for developed countries with higher per capita emissions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a name=\"more\"><\/a>And it&#8217;s not that this blog has been avoiding the issue of carbon budgets. Far from it! Our posts since 2009 include:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatecodered.org\/2009\/09\/forget-about-2050-lets-talk-about-now.html\">Forget about 2050, we&#8217;re blowing the carbon budget right now<\/a>\u00a0(2009)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatecodered.org\/2009\/05\/new-reality-check-on-global-carbon.html\">A new reality check on the global carbon emissions budget<\/a>\u00a0(2009)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatecodered.org\/2011\/05\/commissions-call-for-carbon-budget.html\">Commission&#8217;s call for carbon budget beyond political belief\u00a0<\/a>(2011)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatecodered.org\/2013\/10\/confused-about-new-ipccs-carbon-budget.html\">Confused about the new IPCC&#8217;s carbon budget?\u00a0 So am I.<\/a>\u00a0(2013)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatecodered.org\/2014\/06\/carbon-budgets-climate-sensitivity-and.html\">Carbon budgets, climate sensitivity and the myth of &#8220;burnable carbon&#8221;<\/a>\u00a0(2014)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatecodered.org\/2014\/05\/the-real-budgetary-emergency-burnable.html\">The real budgetary emergency and the myth of &#8220;burnable carbon&#8221;\u00a0<\/a>(2014)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatecodered.org\/2014\/07\/no-carbon-budget-left-to-burn.html\">No carbon budget left to burn<\/a>\u00a0(2014)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Zero by 2050 or 2030? 1.5\u00b0C or 2\u00b0C? Overshoot or not? Demystifying carbon budgets. Confused about carbon budgets for the Paris climate\u00a0 goals? Zero by 2050 or 2030? 1.5\u00b0C or 2\u00b0C? Overshoot or not? There is a maze of contradictory positions,\u00a0 claiming to be based on research evidence. But the assumptions behind much of that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[25674,113,141,7439,17945,369,440,3197],"class_list":["post-57166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environment","tag-carbon-budget","tag-carbon-emissions","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-code-red","tag-david-spratt","tag-global-warming","tag-ipcc","tag-overshoot"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57166","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=57166"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57166\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57198,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57166\/revisions\/57198"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=57166"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=57166"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=57166"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}