{"id":56034,"date":"2020-12-16T15:39:15","date_gmt":"2020-12-16T20:39:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=56034"},"modified":"2020-12-16T15:39:15","modified_gmt":"2020-12-16T20:39:15","slug":"to-the-breaking-point","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=56034","title":{"rendered":"To The Breaking Point"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2020\/12\/16\/to-the-breaking-point\/\">To The Breaking Point<\/a><\/h3>\n<section class=\"entry\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/breaking-point.jpg?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-93937 alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/breaking-point.jpg?resize=173%2C115&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 173px) 100vw, 173px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/breaking-point.jpg?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/breaking-point.jpg?resize=150%2C100&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/breaking-point.jpg?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/breaking-point.jpg?w=1000&amp;ssl=1 1000w\" alt=\"\" width=\"173\" height=\"115\" data-attachment-id=\"93937\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2020\/12\/16\/to-the-breaking-point\/breaking-point-2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/breaking-point.jpg?fit=1000%2C667&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1000,667\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"breaking point\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/breaking-point.jpg?fit=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/breaking-point.jpg?fit=639%2C426&amp;ssl=1\" \/><\/a>If you thought fundamentals, valuations and earnings growth matter the joke is on you.<\/p>\n<p>In 2020 central banks have managed to do the unthinkable: Not only once again save investors from any damage in markets, but they intervened to such a degree that negative earnings growth is now the stuff of new record highs as well.<\/p>\n<p>After all, never before have we seen indices vertically catapult to new record highs 2 years in a row on the cumulative reality of no earnings growth (2019) and negative earnings growth in 2020 with a multiple expansion of a near 50% in just 12 months with an unemployment rate of near 7% to boot.<\/p>\n<p>As it\u2019s all unprecedented it becomes a question of sustainability:<\/p>\n<div class=\"twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered\"><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-0\" class=\"\" title=\"Twitter Tweet\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/index.html?dnt=false&amp;embedId=twitter-widget-0&amp;frame=false&amp;hideCard=false&amp;hideThread=false&amp;id=1338841237789532162&amp;lang=en&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fnorthmantrader.com%2F2020%2F12%2F16%2Fto-the-breaking-point%2F&amp;siteScreenName=northmantrader&amp;theme=light&amp;widgetsVersion=ed20a2b%3A1601588405575&amp;width=550px\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-tweet-id=\"1338841237789532162\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>To get a visual appreciation of the vertical nature of the price action check a chart of small caps, up 17.5% on the year with negative earnings growth yet going vertical to new all time highs:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/RUT.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium_large wp-image-93907\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/RUT.png?resize=639%2C349&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/RUT.png?resize=768%2C419&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/RUT.png?resize=300%2C164&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/RUT.png?resize=1024%2C558&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/RUT.png?resize=150%2C82&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/RUT.png?resize=1536%2C837&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/RUT.png?resize=2048%2C1116&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/RUT.png?resize=1200%2C654&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/RUT.png?w=1278&amp;ssl=1 1278w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/RUT.png?w=1917&amp;ssl=1 1917w\" alt=\"\" width=\"570\" height=\"311\" data-attachment-id=\"93907\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2020\/12\/16\/daily-market-brief-179\/rut-502\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/RUT.png?fit=2264%2C1234&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"2264,1234\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"RUT\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/RUT.png?fit=300%2C164&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/RUT.png?fit=639%2C348&amp;ssl=1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The chart apparently as vertical as the Citi Euphoria index:<\/p>\n<div id=\"north-1674395638\" class=\"north-content\"><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/euphoria.jpg?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-93938\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/euphoria.jpg?resize=451%2C357&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 451px) 100vw, 451px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/euphoria.jpg?w=564&amp;ssl=1 564w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/euphoria.jpg?resize=300%2C237&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/euphoria.jpg?resize=150%2C119&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/euphoria.jpg?resize=100%2C80&amp;ssl=1 100w\" alt=\"\" width=\"451\" height=\"357\" data-attachment-id=\"93938\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2020\/12\/16\/to-the-breaking-point\/euphoria-6\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/euphoria.jpg?fit=564%2C446&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"564,446\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"euphoria\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/euphoria.jpg?fit=300%2C237&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/euphoria.jpg?fit=564%2C446&amp;ssl=1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>If you are looking for precedence you will come up short as the vertical extension on some of these charts have no precedence.<\/p>\n<p>Case in point, take a look at $RUT on a monthly basis:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/IWMM-3.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium_large wp-image-93943\" src=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/IWMM-3.png?resize=639%2C408&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/IWMM-3.png?resize=768%2C490&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/IWMM-3.png?resize=300%2C191&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/IWMM-3.png?resize=1024%2C653&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/IWMM-3.png?resize=150%2C96&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/IWMM-3.png?resize=1200%2C765&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/IWMM-3.png?w=1240&amp;ssl=1 1240w\" alt=\"\" width=\"570\" height=\"364\" data-attachment-id=\"93943\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2020\/12\/16\/to-the-breaking-point\/iwmm-9\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/IWMM-3.png?fit=1240%2C791&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1240,791\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"IWMM\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/IWMM-3.png?fit=300%2C191&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/northmantrader.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/IWMM-3.png?fit=639%2C407&amp;ssl=1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The 10 MA oscillator has moved past the only to 2 previous all time extreme readings in the 15 range, now sitting above 21. Note the 2 previous occasions of extreme extensions above 15 resulted in an eventual reversal to and below the monthly 10MA.<\/p>\n<p>Not only is the price action far extended, but price is entirely outside the monthly Bollinger band. As I outlined at the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2018\/12\/23\/imbalance\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>December 2018 bottom<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and again at the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/northmantrader.com\/2020\/03\/23\/1929-redux\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>March 2020 bottom<\/strong><\/a>, markets don\u2019t like technical imbalances, they lead to reversion and this market here is showing a historic imbalance as prices have been crashing to the upside.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>To The Breaking Point If you thought fundamentals, valuations and earnings growth matter the joke is on you. In 2020 central banks have managed to do the unthinkable: Not only once again save investors from any damage in markets, but they intervened to such a degree that negative earnings growth is now the stuff of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[124,1849,7542,23808],"class_list":["post-56034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-central-banks","tag-financial-markets","tag-northman-trader","tag-sven-henrich"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56034","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=56034"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56034\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56035,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56034\/revisions\/56035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=56034"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=56034"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=56034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}