{"id":55166,"date":"2020-09-26T07:57:33","date_gmt":"2020-09-26T12:57:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=55166"},"modified":"2020-09-26T07:57:33","modified_gmt":"2020-09-26T12:57:33","slug":"analysis-world-has-already-passed-peak-oil-bp-figures-reveal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=55166","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: World has already passed \u2018peak oil\u2019, BP figures reveal"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Analysis: World has already passed \u2018peak oil\u2019, BP figures reveal<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The world has already passed \u201cpeak oil\u201d demand, according to Carbon Brief analysis of the latest energy outlook from oil major BP.<\/p>\n

The\u00a02020 edition<\/a>\u00a0of the\u00a0annual outlook<\/a>\u00a0reveals\u00a0\u2013 albeit indirectly\u00a0\u2013 that global oil demand will not regain the levels seen last year. It adds that demand could soon fall rapidly in the face of stronger climate action \u2013 by at least 10% this decade and by as much as 50% over the next 20 years.<\/p>\n

The latest outlook was delayed by six months so that it could reflect the\u00a0unprecedented impact<\/a>\u00a0of the coronavirus pandemic. The delay also reflects\u00a0BP\u2019s plans<\/a>, set out over the course of this year, to reach\u00a0net-zero emissions<\/a>\u00a0by 2050 \u2013\u00a0as an \u201cintegrated energy company<\/a>\u201d, rather than an oil major.<\/p>\n

This means that alongside its conservative \u201cbusiness-as-usual\u201d scenario\u00a0\u2013 in which demand for gas continues to rise indefinitely \u2013 BP has also looked at the effect of stronger climate action. In its \u201crapid\u201d and \u201cnet-zero\u201d scenarios, coal and oil see fast declines, while gas peaks by 2025 or 2035.<\/p>\n

Although the net-zero focus is new, Carbon Brief analysis shows the outlook continues the trend of previous editions, by cutting the prospects for fossil fuels while raising the bar for renewables.<\/p>\n

\u2018Peak oil\u2019<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Global oil demand has doubled over the past 50 years, reaching around 100m barrels per day in 2019, equivalent to an annual energy consumption of 192 exajoules (EJ).<\/p>\n

In earlier editions of the BP outlook, global oil demand was expected to continue rising steadily. Indeed, successive editions had raised the outlook for oil, shown in blue lines in the chart below.<\/p>\n

By 2018, BP\u2019s outlook started to foresee an end to the upwards march for oil, with demand peaking by the mid-2030s. But the downwards revision in this year\u2019s edition is much more dramatic (red lines), showing demand having already peaked in 2019, with large potential downside risks.<\/p>\n