{"id":5516,"date":"2015-02-10T07:02:37","date_gmt":"2015-02-10T12:02:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=5516"},"modified":"2015-02-10T07:02:37","modified_gmt":"2015-02-10T12:02:37","slug":"fourth-turning-the-shadow-of-crisis-has-not-passed-part-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=5516","title":{"rendered":"FOURTH TURNING \u2013 THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED \u2013 PART ONE"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonsblog.com\/2015\/02\/fourth-turning-shadow-crisis-passed-part-one.html\" target=\"_blank\">FOURTH TURNING \u2013 THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED \u2013 PART ONE<\/a><\/h3>\n<p><em>\u201cImagine some national (and probably global) volcanic eruption, initially flowing along channels of distress that were created during the Unraveling era and further widened by the catalyst. Trying to foresee where the eruption will go once it bursts free of the channels is like trying to predict the exact fault line of an earthquake. All you know in advance is something about the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Social distress, with violence fueled by class, race, nativism, or religion and abetted by armed gangs, underground militias, and mercenaries hired by walled communities<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Political distress, with institutional collapse, open tax revolts, one-party hegemony, major constitutional change, secessionism, authoritarianism, and altered national borders<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Military distress, with war against terrorists or foreign regimes equipped with weapons of mass destruction\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a title=\"The Fourth Turning\" href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0767900464?tag=thebur01-20&amp;camp=0&amp;creative=0&amp;linkCode=as1&amp;creativeASIN=0767900464&amp;adid=0VTFPQQFCAV7FYWEMDZT&amp;\" target=\"_blank\"><strong><em>The Fourth Turning<\/em><\/strong><\/a><strong><em>\u00a0\u2013 Strauss &amp; Howe \u2013 1997<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>When you read pertinent passages from Strauss &amp; Howe\u2019s prophetic assessment of history from a generational perspective, eighteen years after its publication and seven years into the Crisis they forecasted with uncanny accuracy, you find yourself shaking your head and appreciating their visionary generational appraisal of antiquity. Those who scorn\u00a0<a title=\"The Fourth Turning\" href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0767900464?tag=thebur01-20&amp;camp=0&amp;creative=0&amp;linkCode=as1&amp;creativeASIN=0767900464&amp;adid=0VTFPQQFCAV7FYWEMDZT&amp;\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>The Fourth Turning<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0either haven\u2019t read it, are ignorant of the cyclical nature of history, blindly believe in never ending human progress, or their salary is dependent upon not acknowledging the truth. A year consists of four seasons \u2013 Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter. A long human life of 80 years consists of four phases \u2013 childhood, young adulthood, mid-life, and old age. Human beings tend to associate themselves with the cohort born within the roughly 20 year period that makes up one phase of life.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FOURTH TURNING \u2013 THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED \u2013 PART ONE \u201cImagine some national (and probably global) volcanic eruption, initially flowing along channels of distress that were created during the Unraveling era and further widened by the catalyst. Trying to foresee where the eruption will go once it bursts free of the channels [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5,7],"tags":[181,3399,329,2500,3402,3401,3400],"class_list":["post-5516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-geopolitics","category-survival-2","tag-crisis","tag-economic-distress","tag-fourth-turning","tag-history","tag-military-distress","tag-political-distress","tag-social-distress"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5516"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5516\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5517,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5516\/revisions\/5517"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}