{"id":55119,"date":"2020-09-22T18:08:31","date_gmt":"2020-09-22T23:08:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=55119"},"modified":"2020-09-22T18:08:31","modified_gmt":"2020-09-22T23:08:31","slug":"blains-morning-porridge-sept-22nd-2020-rocketmen-and-viruses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=55119","title":{"rendered":"Blain\u2019s Morning Porridge \u2013 Sept 22nd 2020: Rocketmen and Viruses"},"content":{"rendered":"

Blain\u2019s Morning Porridge \u2013 Sept 22nd 2020: Rocketmen and Viruses<\/a><\/h3>\n
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\u201cI\u2019m the King of rock and roll, completely\u2026\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

From the Ministry of Common Sense:\u00a0\u201cTo celebrate this morning\u2019s Autumn Equinox, we\u2019ve decided to commit economic suicide.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

The pandemic is a pernicious little beast. \u00a0It clearly eats away brains. Rising infections are a risk. \u00a0In the face of clear evidence fewer people are dying and the medical services are coping better with Covid cases – we could assess that risk, and would probably conclude its better to stay broadly open. Or we can let fear and emotion run us: let\u2019s stay safe by closing down while hoping and praying for a vaccine next year. Hope is never a good strategy \u2013 action is. The choice is pain today as more people might die earlier from the infection, or pain tomorrow as jobs, livelihoods, and more deaths result long-term from economic shutdown.<\/p>\n

Choices, choices\u2026 Both approaches have clear costs. But one is clearly preferable to the other \u2013 if government had the guts to say it.<\/p>\n

The brutal reality is deaths hump upwards during the autumn and winter from respiratory illness. Markets get it. Markets are about assessing risks and outcomes. Which is why they\u2019ve stalled \u2013 losing confidence and knowing both long and short-term economic costs will be lower if we shift towards keeping the economy on track to recovery, and facing down the virus. It\u2019s not just Sweden that get\u2019s that. Compare and contrast the\u00a0UK approach with Germany<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 which is going to brazen it out by keeping the economy as open as practical. Germany will suffer a far lower hit.<\/p>\n

Just as the UK economy was struggling back onto its knees, it will get the legs kicked from under it. There is now zero-talk of swift recovery \u2013 estimates are now for 2022 before the economy claws back its likely 7% drop in 2020. A W-shape looks nailed-on.<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Blain\u2019s Morning Porridge \u2013 Sept 22nd 2020: Rocketmen and Viruses   \u201cI\u2019m the King of rock and roll, completely\u2026\u201d From the Ministry of Common Sense:\u00a0\u201cTo celebrate this morning\u2019s Autumn Equinox, we\u2019ve decided to commit economic suicide.\u201d The pandemic is a pernicious little beast. \u00a0It clearly eats away brains. Rising infections are a risk. \u00a0In the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[15674,359,22663,607,771,827],"class_list":["post-55119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bill-blain","tag-germany","tag-morning-porridge","tag-pandemic","tag-sweden","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=55119"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55119\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":55120,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55119\/revisions\/55120"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=55119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=55119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=55119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}