{"id":53945,"date":"2020-06-29T08:04:41","date_gmt":"2020-06-29T13:04:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=53945"},"modified":"2020-06-29T08:04:46","modified_gmt":"2020-06-29T13:04:46","slug":"blains-morning-porridge-june-29-2020-what-if-its-just-begun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=53945","title":{"rendered":"Blain&#8217;s Morning Porridge &#8211; June 29 2020: What if it&#8217;s just begun?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/morningporridge.com\/the-morning-porridge\/f\/blains-morning-porridge---june-29-2020-what-if-its-just-begun\">Blain&#8217;s Morning Porridge &#8211; June 29 2020: What if it&#8217;s just begun?<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/img1.wsimg.com\/isteam\/ip\/30ed3a97-97db-487f-9326-44e1bfc746ce\/slowburn.jpeg\/:\/rs=w:1280\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What if the real pain is still to come?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cThat about sums it up for me..\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is an amusing piece on the FTs\u2019 Alphaville listing 20 things investors should look for when trying to work out who will be&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ftalphaville.ft.com\/2020\/06\/26\/1593160826000\/Who-s-going-to-be-the-next-Wirecard-\/?shareType=nongift\">the next Wirecard<\/a>. You don\u2019t need to be a financial genius to work out which company they might be talking about\u2026 It\u2019s a basic wake-up call. In periods of economic darkness, its all-to-easy to be persuaded as to the efficacy of snake oil. If something over-promises, makes lots of noise while underdelivering, and is basically a personality cult \u2013 then it\u2019s long-term unlikely to be a particularly successful investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Back in the real world\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We are nearly half-way through 2020. Although we\u2019ve been shocked, surprised and buffeted by the Virus, and buoyed by the swift and effective intervention of Governments to support companies and mitigate job losses while Central Banks have calmed markets with the opium of QE Infinity, I can\u2019t help wonder if the real earthquake is yet to come.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I am still bullish about long-term recovery as we adapt to the virus and it spurs a new tech development age. But I can\u2019t help feeling deeply uneasy about current markets and the resilience of global financial systems.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This crisis is unlike anything I\u2019ve experienced before. Normally a market crash is explosive event \u2013 it occurs when something in the financial sphere breaks; like confidence in housing and financial systems in 2007, or valuations in the Dot.Com crash, or faith in credit constructs like during the European Sovereign Debt crisis in the 2010s. In each of case of financial mayhem I\u2019ve experienced since the Great Perp Crash of 1986, the initial shock and horror gradually lessens as the market discounts the shock, shrugs it off, and carries on.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Blain&#8217;s Morning Porridge &#8211; June 29 2020: What if it&#8217;s just begun? What if the real pain is still to come? \u201cThat about sums it up for me..\u201d There is an amusing piece on the FTs\u2019 Alphaville listing 20 things investors should look for when trying to work out who will be&nbsp;the next Wirecard. You [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[15674,1849,501,855],"class_list":["post-53945","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bill-blain","tag-financial-markets","tag-market-crash","tag-viral-pandemic"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53945","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=53945"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53945\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":53947,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53945\/revisions\/53947"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=53945"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=53945"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=53945"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}