{"id":53822,"date":"2020-06-23T12:20:30","date_gmt":"2020-06-23T17:20:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=53822"},"modified":"2020-06-23T12:20:33","modified_gmt":"2020-06-23T17:20:33","slug":"global-warming-and-cooling-after-co2-shutoff-at-1-5c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=53822","title":{"rendered":"Global Warming and Cooling After CO2 Shutoff at +1.5\u00b0C"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Global Warming and Cooling After CO2 Shutoff at +1.5\u00b0C<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I have done further analytical modeling of global warming, using the same general method described earlier<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question addressed now is: what is the trend of temperature change after an abrupt shutoff of all CO2 emissions just as the net temperature rise (relative to year 1910) reaches +1.5\u00b0C, given the lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For this problem, it is assumed that when the temperature rise (relative to 1910) reaches ~+1.5\u00b0C, that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 all greenhouse gas emissions cease;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 pollution grit (which scatters light) falls out of the atmosphere \u201cinstantly\u201d (a few weeks);<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 CO2 (greenhouse gas) concentration decays exponentially after emissions shutoff;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 for CO2 lifetimes [e^-1] in years: 20, 50, 100, 238.436, 500, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 temperature sensitivities of cloud cover, ice cover and albedo are as in the previous model;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 all other fixed physical parameters are as in the previous model,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(https:\/\/manuelgarciajr.com\/2020\/06\/13\/living-with-global-warming\/<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In general, for the 8 cases calculated, the temperature increases at a diminishing rate after the emissions shutoff, reaches a peak, then trends downward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The longer the lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the later and higher is the temperature peak, and the longer it takes to cool back down to the baseline temperature of 1910, which is 1.5\u00b0C below the starting temperature for this problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 4 figures below show the calculated results.\"A<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: \u00b0C change vs. years after shutoff, for lifetimes: 20, 50, 100, 238.436 years.<\/strong>\"A<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 2: \u00b0C change vs. years after shutoff, for lifetimes: 20, 50, 100, 238.436, 500, 1,000 years.<\/strong>\"A<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 3: \u00b0C change vs. years after shutoff, for lifetimes: 238.436, 500, 1,000, 10,000 years.<\/strong>\"A<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 4: \u00b0C change vs. years after shutoff, for lifetimes: 1,000, 10,000, 100,000 years.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is evident from the figures that if the lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is greater than 500 years, that a temperature overshoot above +2.0\u00b0C (relative to 1910) will occur before cooling begins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global Warming and Cooling After CO2 Shutoff at +1.5\u00b0C I have done further analytical modeling of global warming, using the same general method described earlier. The question addressed now is: what is the trend of temperature change after an abrupt shutoff of all CO2 emissions just as the net temperature rise (relative to year 1910) reaches +1.5\u00b0C, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[113,369,29927],"class_list":["post-53822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environment","tag-carbon-emissions","tag-global-warming","tag-manuel-garcia-jr"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53822","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=53822"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53822\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":53823,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53822\/revisions\/53823"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=53822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=53822"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=53822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}