{"id":53769,"date":"2020-06-20T18:39:26","date_gmt":"2020-06-20T23:39:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=53769"},"modified":"2020-06-20T18:39:30","modified_gmt":"2020-06-20T23:39:30","slug":"u-s-oil-dominance-is-coming-to-an-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=53769","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Oil Dominance Is Coming To An End"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Energy\/Crude-Oil\/US-Oil-Dominance-Is-Coming-To-An-End.html\">U.S. Oil Dominance Is Coming To An End<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>U.S.\u2019 energy dominance agenda is dead as the country\u2019s shale industry is looking at a steep production decline.<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>The U.S. tight oil or shale rig count has fallen 69% this year from 539 in mid-March to 165 last week.<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>U.S. oil import dependence is set to grow in the next couple of years.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. energy dominance is over. Output is probably going to drop by 50% over the next year and nothing can be done about it.&nbsp;It has nothing to do with the lack of shale profitability or other silly memes cited by people who don\u2019t understand energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s because of low rig count.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. tight oil or shale rig count has fallen 69% this year from 539 in mid-March to 165 last week. Tight oil production will decline 50% by this time next year. As a result, U.S. oil production will fall from to less than 8 mmb\/d by mid-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What if rig count increases between now and then? It won\u2019t make any difference because of the lag between contracting a drilling rig and first production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The party is over for shale and U.S. energy dominance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Energy Dominance is Over<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tight oil is the foundation of U.S. energy dominance. The U.S. has always been a major oil producer but it moved into the top tier of oil super powers as tight oil boosted output from about 5 to more than 12 mmb\/d between 2008 and 2019 (Figure 1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conventional production has been declining since 1970. It fell from almost 10 mmb\/d in 1970 to 5 mmb\/d in 2008.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Figure 1. Tight oil is the foundation for U.S. Energy Dominance.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net\/tinymce\/2020-06\/1592519397-o_1eb4oqs6j1nse1v901i6f1s04do58_large.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net\/tinymce\/2020-06\/1592519397-o_1eb4oqs6j1nse1v901i6f1s04do58.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Conventional production has been in decline since 1970. Tight oil boosted U.S. production to more than 12 mmb\/d in 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>U.S. Oil Dominance Is Coming To An End U.S.\u2019 energy dominance agenda is dead as the country\u2019s shale industry is looking at a steep production decline. The U.S. tight oil or shale rig count has fallen 69% this year from 539 in mid-March to 165 last week. U.S. oil import dependence is set to grow [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[2434,595,5332,846],"class_list":["post-53769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-arthur-berman","tag-oil-production","tag-oilprice-com","tag-us-shale-oil"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=53769"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53769\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":53770,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53769\/revisions\/53770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=53769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=53769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=53769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}