{"id":53707,"date":"2020-06-15T19:35:50","date_gmt":"2020-06-16T00:35:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=53707"},"modified":"2020-06-15T19:35:54","modified_gmt":"2020-06-16T00:35:54","slug":"if-stocks-dont-hold-here-we-could-see-another-crash-of-sorts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=53707","title":{"rendered":"If Stocks Don\u2019t Hold Here We Could See Another Crash of Sorts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/2020\/06\/15\/if-stocks-dont-hold-here-we-could-see-another-crash-of-sorts\/\">If Stocks Don\u2019t Hold Here We Could See Another Crash of Sorts<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Stocks have fallen hard over the weekend again. The media is pinning this drop on the potential for another COVID-19 pandemic, but the facts don\u2019t support that theory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At times like these, it\u2019s essential to ignore narratives, and focus on price. With that in mind, the S&amp;P 500 remains in an uptrend,&nbsp;<em>barely<\/em>&nbsp;(blue lines in the chart below). Stocks need to hold here for the bull market case to remain intact.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/GPC61520.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23687\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If stocks break down from here, there are two items in play. One is support at 2,940 (lower green line in the chart below). The other is the gap established by the open on May 18<sup>th<\/sup>&nbsp;(blue rectangle in the chart below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/GPC615202.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23688\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>When we plot the S&amp;P 500 against the VIX (inverted), it looks like there\u2019s more downside to go here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/GPC615203.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23689\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, both breadth and credit suggest the downside is limited here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/GPC615204.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23686\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>My point with all of this is that today the market is literally a crap shoot. The easy money from the rally has been made, and the next trend is not clear yet. So now is NOT the time to be putting a load of capital to work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, if stocks don\u2019t hold here, we could potentially see a crash down to 2,700.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/gainspainscapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/sc.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23691\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>That is a high reward type move. And one we need to consider.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If Stocks Don\u2019t Hold Here We Could See Another Crash of Sorts Stocks have fallen hard over the weekend again. The media is pinning this drop on the potential for another COVID-19 pandemic, but the facts don\u2019t support that theory. At times like these, it\u2019s essential to ignore narratives, and focus on price. With that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1849,21771,23707,500,1138,855],"class_list":["post-53707","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-financial-markets","tag-gains-pains-and-capital","tag-graham-summers","tag-market-collapse","tag-stock-market","tag-viral-pandemic"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53707","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=53707"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53707\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":53708,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53707\/revisions\/53708"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=53707"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=53707"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=53707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}