{"id":5339,"date":"2015-02-06T06:44:47","date_gmt":"2015-02-06T11:44:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=5339"},"modified":"2015-02-06T06:44:47","modified_gmt":"2015-02-06T11:44:47","slug":"why-oil-wont-go-below-40","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=5339","title":{"rendered":"Why Oil Won\u2019t Go Below $40"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><a href=\"http:\/\/oilprice.com\/Energy\/Oil-Prices\/Why-Oil-Wont-Go-Below-40.html\" target=\"_blank\">Why Oil Won\u2019t Go Below $40<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>When I made my\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.energytrendsinsider.com\/2015\/01\/08\/my-2015-energy-predictions\/\">energy predictions for 2015<\/a>, I made some very aggressive predictions. Perhaps the most aggressive was that the closing price of West Texas Intermediate would not fall below $40\/barrel (bbl) in 2015. Why do I consider this a particularly aggressive prediction? Because on the day I made it, the price of WTI closed at $48.80, but in each of the previous three months the price of WTI had dropped at least $10\/bbl over the course of the month. So if WTI had maintained the same downward trajectory, it could have easily ended January below $40\/bbl. My prediction could have been proven wrong before we even got out of January, so I really stuck my neck out on that one.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not that there is anything special about $40, and I acknowledge that it\u2019s possible that we could overshoot. But I made the prediction to highlight my conviction that $40 oil simply isn\u2019t a sustainable price in today\u2019s world.<\/p>\n<p>A\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/102394000\">number of respected pundits<\/a>\u00a0are projecting that we will go below $40\/bbl, with<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/102372199#.\">some suggesting\u00a0<\/a>that crude could even crash all the way to $30\/bbl. Last week on CNBC, respected oil analyst Stephen Schork said \u201cI do think this is a dead cat bounce\u201d, elaborating that at least over the next 2 to 3 months that there is too much oil supply relative to current demand. My point is that it has been a widely held belief that oil is going to fall below $40\/bbl, so I am definitely on the wrong side of conventional wisdom on this prediction. That\u2019s not a safe place to be, because when you are wrong in that case people think \u201cEveryone read this correctly except for you.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But I think conventional wisdom is wrong in this case.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Why Oil Won\u2019t Go Below $40 When I made my\u00a0energy predictions for 2015, I made some very aggressive predictions. Perhaps the most aggressive was that the closing price of West Texas Intermediate would not fall below $40\/barrel (bbl) in 2015. Why do I consider this a particularly aggressive prediction? Because on the day I made [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[328,588,1775,1451,895],"class_list":["post-5339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-fossil-fuels","tag-oil","tag-oil-price-collapse","tag-west-texas-intermediate","tag-wti"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5339","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5339"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5339\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5340,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5339\/revisions\/5340"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5339"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5339"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5339"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}